IRAQ

Shiite Group Behind Iraq Bombing - Ernesto Londoño, Washington Post

US military officials on Wednesday accused a Shiite militant group of carrying out a truck bombing in northwestern Baghdad on Tuesday evening that killed at least 65 people, the deadliest attack in the capital since March. The accusation was startling because the bombing in the Hurriyah neighborhood had the hallmarks of earlier large-scale attacks in predominantly Shiite areas that had been attributed to Sunni insurgent groups such as al-Qaeda in Iraq.

US Blames Shiite Leader for Deadly Blast - Andrew Kramer, New York Times

The American military on Wednesday blamed a Shiite militia leader for detonating a car bomb that killed 63 people in a Shiite district a day earlier, saying he had intended to set off sectarian violence against Sunnis returning to the area as security improved. Shiite militias drove Sunni residents from the area 18 months ago, when Baghdad was gripped in a cycle of revenge killings that ultimately divided the city between the sects. Enraged residents had blamed either American soldiers, who had been nearby, or Sunni insurgents from Al Deel, the bordering Sunni district. But the United States military blamed Haydar Mehdi Khadum al-Fawadi, and identified him as a leader of the Iranian-linked Shiite fighters known as special groups.

Deals Set to Bring Oil Giants Back - Andrew Kramer, New York Times

Four Western oil companies are in the final stages of negotiations this month on contracts that will return them to Iraq, 36 years after losing their oil concession to nationalization as Saddam Hussein rose to power. Exxon Mobil, Shell, Total and BP - the original partners in the Iraq Petroleum Company - along with Chevron and a number of smaller oil companies, are in talks with Iraq’s Oil Ministry for no-bid contracts to service Iraq’s largest fields, according to ministry officials, oil company officials and an American diplomat.

Iran on Its Heels - Vali Nasr, Washington Post opinion

For the first time since 2003, Iran has stumbled in Iraq. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's decision to confront Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army in Basra and Sadr City last month caught Tehran off guard. The Mahdi Army lost more than face: It surrendered large caches of arms, and many of its leaders fled or were killed or captured. Crucially, the militias lost strategic terrain -- Basra and its chokehold on the causeway between Kuwait and Baghdad and Iraq's oil exports; Sadr City and the threat it posed to Baghdad security. Visiting Basra this month, I saw city walls covered with pro-Maliki graffiti. Commerce is returning to the city center. Trouble spots remain in both places, as Tuesday's car bombings show, but the Mahdi Army's unchallenged hold has ended.

When to Leave Iraq - Kahl and Odom, Foreign Affairs opinion

In "The Price of the Surge" (May/June 2008), Steven Simon correctly observes that the Sunni turn against al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), known as the Sunni Awakening, has been a key factor in security progress during the period of "the surge." Simon is also on point when he notes that the Awakening, which began before the surge, was not a direct consequence of additional US troops. But although Simon gets much of the past right, he ultimately draws the wrong lessons for US policy moving forward. Rather than unilaterally and unconditionally withdrawing from Iraq and hoping that the international community will fill the void and push the Iraqis toward accommodation -- a very unlikely scenario -- the United States must embrace a policy of "conditional engagement." This approach would couple a phased redeployment of combat forces with a commitment to providing residual support for the Iraqi government if and only if it moves toward genuine reconciliation. Conditional engagement -- rather than Simon's policy of unconditional disengagement -- would incorporate the real lesson from the Sunni Awakening.

The Right Iraq Footprint - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion

America should be looking, as Iraqis are, for a transition to a different kind of relationship. The time is ripe, at last, to think about a gradual withdrawal of most American soldiers. The US troop surge has had enough success in reducing the violence that we can say "Hallelujah!" or "Alhamdulillah!" and start to look for the exit ramp. Not a quick pullout, but not a long-term occupation either, premised on the false hope that Iraq can be an Arab version of South Korea or Germany. I've been helped in thinking about the future of Iraq by conversations over the past week with Lieutenant Colonel David Kilcullen, a retired Australian Army officer and an expert in counterinsurgency. He was a key member of the team that drafted General David Petraeus' Iraq campaign plan. He was speaking in a private capacity at an academic conference sponsored by the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies - and he stressed that he was offering ideas about the future, rather than a critique of past or present strategy.

What's Next For Iraq? - Barry Posen, Boston Globe opinion

The month of May saw the lowest US casualties in Iraq since early 2004. But counterinsurgencies are not won on points, otherwise Algeria would be part of France and South Vietnam would be an independent country. Progress in Iraq can only be judged by a close examination of political trends, indeed of whether the US strategy in Iraq is producing a political accord among the key factions that will permit the emergence of a legitimate, stable government. Here the news is mixed. more stories like thisThe key decision-makers on the ground, General David Petraeus and US Ambassador Ryan Crocker, have had a great deal of latitude in interpreting how to achieve President Bush's stated goal - a democratic Iraq that can defend itself, administer itself, and become an important ally in the war on terror. Though their strategy has been obscure, it now seems clear. A strong central state is no longer in the cards. Kurds do not want it; Sunnis want it only if they can run it; and Shi'ites disagree violently among themselves, with the Supreme Council, which is aligned with the government of Nouri al-Maliki, against a strong central state and Moqtada al-Sadr for it.

An Awful SOFA - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

One of the most significant foreign policy questions to be decided in the next several months is that of continuing U.S. involvement in Iraq. In large part, that question will be answered by the way the current Status of Forces Agreement ("SOFA") negotiations unfold in Baghdad between the US government and the Iraqi government. Currently, US and Multi-National Forces in Iraq operate under a United Nations mandate, but that mandate is scheduled to expire at the end of this year.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

US Trainers Have Key Mission - David Zucchino, Los Angeles Times

Training is the easy part. The hard part is cutting through threats, bureaucracy, cronyism and corruption. The effectiveness of the police and other local officials is growing in importance as the Taliban moves to regain territory in southern Afghanistan this summer. Afghan and North Atlantic Treaty Organization troops battled the Taliban on Wednesday for control of villages around the city of Kandahar, about 220 miles east of Farah. Throughout the country, police officers often have been little more than hired guns who raise money for local warlords through illegal taxes, shakedowns and corruption. Many policemen and district officials sell weapons and opium. Some collude with the Taliban. Trainers from the US military and its foreign partners have been working since 2003 to reform the police.

Afghans, NATO Move Against Taliban - Candace Rondeaux, Washington Post

Hundreds of Afghan and Canadian troops launched a major attack Wednesday against Taliban fighters who have moved into several villages in southern Afghanistan in recent days, according to military officials. Troops with the Afghan army and the Canadian command of NATO's International Security Assistance Force initiated joint patrols around Arghandab district in Kandahar province early in the morning. Helicopter gunships flew overhead and armored vehicles rolled into the district as Taliban fighters exchanged fire with NATO and Afghan forces.

4 Villages Wrested From Taliban - Faiez and King, Los Angeles Times

Explosions echoed through vineyards and pomegranate groves Wednesday as Afghan and NATO forces backed by helicopter gunships recaptured at least four villages in southern Afghanistan that had been seized by the Taliban, Afghan authorities said. At least three dozen insurgents, including a commander, and two Afghan soldiers were killed in fighting in the Arghandab district northwest of Kandahar, Afghanistan's Defense Ministry said. By day's end, the insurgents were still in control of about half a dozen villages, the provincial government said.

36 Taliban Killed Near Kandahar - Khan and Straziuso, Associated Press

Backed by helicopters firing missiles, hundreds of NATO and Afghan forces hunted Taliban militants in villages outside Kandahar on Wednesday, killing dozens of insurgents. NATO reported only light resistance in Arghandab district, a lush river valley filled with fruit groves that offer militants bountiful defensive positions. The Afghan army says up to 400 militants poured into the area on Monday, just 10 miles northwest of Kandahar city, the Taliban's former power base. US and NATO officials have repeatedly played down the scope of the Taliban push. But the swift military response - 700 Afghan soldiers flew to Kandahar on a moment's notice - and the fighter aircraft dedicated by NATO suggest that keeping Arghandab free from militants is an urgent priority.

Afghanistan Confusion - David Wood, Military Watch

The best estimate I can get of the insurgents' offensive outside Kandahar is 400 to 500 fighters, some of them prisoners freed in the Taliban attack on Kanadhar's jail Friday. Makes you wonder about the Taliban's choice of targets when you realize that just over the horizon from where they are gathering is the huge US and NATO military base, with tens of thousands of troops, including the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit with its reinforced infantry battalion, armored vehicles, artillery and fleets of helicopter gunships and strike fighters.

US Asymmetric Edge: Air Power? - David Wood, Military Watch

US, British and French fighters, flying out of Kandahar Airfield (KAF) almost within eyesight of the Taliban offensive, together with allied aircraft flying out of Bagram air base, flew 61 close air support missions yesterday, according to CENTAF, the air headquarters in the region. What caught my eye, though, was that the strikes were spread out across all of southern and eastern Afghanistan -- not focused on Kandahar, which has been getting all the press attention.

IRAN

Senate Panel Approves Tougher Sanctions - Reuters

A Senate panel on Wednesday approved legislation to strengthen US sanctions on Iran in an effort to get that country to drop its nuclear program. The Senate Finance Committee cleared the bill to expand trade and financial sanctions 19-2, and the House of Representatives passed similar legislation last year. Washington believes Iran harbors ambitions to build an atomic bomb, while Tehran says its nuclear program is for peaceful energy purposes.

Truce a Victory for Iran - Michael Oren, Wall Street Journal opinion

Proponents of an Israeli-Palestinian accord are praising the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that went into effect this morning. Yet even if the agreement suspends violence temporarily -- though dozens of Hamas rockets struck Israel yesterday -- it represents a historic accomplishment for the jihadist forces most opposed to peace, and defeat for the Palestinians who might still have been Israel's partners. The roots of this tragedy go back to the summer of 2005 and the Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The evacuation, intended to free Israel of Gaza's political and strategic burden, was hailed as a victory by Palestinian terrorist groups, above all Hamas.

Talking to Iran - Tom Barnett, Thomas P.M. Barnett

The thing is, you never really defeat the revolutionary movement, you simply get the nation-state to rein it in on its own, because there are better deals to be made. For now, with Iran, all those better deals run eastward, with states that currently have no ambition to rein in its behavior (just not their definition of a rising great power). Taheri makes fun of the idea of measly carrots being contemplated: spare parts for this and that. Granted, so long as we elevate Iran-the-revolutionary-movement to the status of Nazi Germany, that does seem weak. But the question begs: why elevate this crappy revolution so? Simply because Ahmadinejad shoots off his mouth?

THE LONG WAR

US Judge Meets Lawyers to Discuss Guantanamo Cases - Reuters

The US District Court's chief judge said he met on Wednesday with lawyers for Guantanamo Bay prisoners and the Justice Department to go over security and procedural issues in view of a landmark ruling last week that allowed suspects to challenge their detention. US District Court Chief Judge Royce Lamberth convened the session following the high court's ruling on Thursday that held the prisoners can go before federal judges to challenge their years-long detention and seek their release.

Unlikely Antagonist in the Detainees’ Corner - William Glaberson, New York Times

When he speaks publicly, Lt. Cmdr. William C. Kuebler, a military lawyer for a Guantánamo detainee, is careful to say his remarks do not reflect the views of the Pentagon. As if anybody would make that mistake. In his Navy blues, the youthful commander could pass for an eager cadet. But give him a minute on the subject of his client, a terrorism suspect named Omar Khadr, and he sounds like some 1960s radical lawyer, an apple-cheeked William Kunstler in uniform. The Bush administration’s war crimes system “is designed to get criminal convictions” with “no real evidence,” Commander Kuebler says. Or he lets fly that military prosecutors “launder evidence derived from torture.”

That's Classified - Washington Post editorial

Knowledge is power. But in government, if knowledge isn't shared between agencies and with others to whom the information could be vital, the consequences can be -- and have been -- deadly. The Sept. 11 commission report cited a lack of information-sharing as a contributing factor to the horrific events of that day in 2001. Nearly seven years later, the commission's recommendation for the creation of a "trusted information network" is finally getting some traction, with significant steps taken by the White House and comparable moves in Congress. The problem centers on what is known as "sensitive but unclassified" (SBU) information. There are no rules for what can or must be given that designation. As a result, different agencies have different standards for when to keep material within their walls.

Sounds of Silence - Mark Dubowitz, Wall Street Journal opinion

Welcome to a world where criticism of militant Islam could land you in court or worse. In Vancouver, Canada's venerable Maclean's magazine awaits a hate-speech verdict from a human-rights tribunal for publishing a chapter from syndicated columnist Mark Steyn's best-selling book "America Alone." The accusers charge the author and publisher with "Islamophobia." Last week, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, secretary general of the 57-member Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), warned a gathering in Kuala Lumpur that "mere condemnation or distancing from the acts of the perpetrators of Islamophobia" would not suffice. He recommended that Western countries restrict freedom of expression and demanded that the media stop publishing "hate material" like the Danish cartoons. "It is now high time for concrete actions to stem the rot before it aggravates any further," he said. Islamic countries already scored a victory on this front back in March. They pushed through a resolution at the UN Human Rights Council urging a global ban on the public defamation of religion -- read Islam.

Hezbollah Operatives in Venezuela - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The US Treasury Department has added two Venezuelans to the list of Specially Designated Global Terrorists for their support of Hezbollah. Ghazi Nasr al Din, a Venezuelan diplomat, and Fawzi Kan'an, a businessman, both provide support for the Lebanese-based terror group. Ghazi Nasr al Din was born in Lebanon who currently serves as a Venezuelan diplomat and the president of a Shia Islamic center. "Nasr al Din served until recently as Charge d' Affaires at the Venezuelan Embassy in Damascus, Syria, and was subsequently appointed the Director of Political Aspects at the Venezuelan Embassy in Lebanon," the US Treasury reported in a press release.

IRREGULAR WARFARE

'Where the Road Ends the Insurgents Begin' - Sam Roggeveen, The Interpreter

The logic is beguiling: new roads will create commerce and improve communication and aid flows, thus opening up opportunites for Afghans who might otherwise join the Taliban. And roads in Afghanistan's remote regions might make it harder for the Taliban to hide from Afghan and Coalition forces. But Iraq has (or had) quite an extensive and modern road network, by Middle Eastern standards, which has certainly not inhibited the insurgency there. Indeed roads have been the scene for many of its most successful attacks. Infrastructure is surely critical in helping lift Afghanistan out of its desperate poverty. But will it really play a role in defeating the Taliban?

Roads to Counterinsurgency Perdition - Mark O'Neill, The Interpreter

Despite the apparent attractiveness of the idea that roads diminish insurgencies, the relationship between the two is at best tenuous. Sam correctly points out that insurgency flourished in Iraq, where there was and remains a well developed road network. Indeed, the majority of coalition forces killed or injured in Iraq have been hurt in IED-related incidents that invariably occur on the roads. There are other second-level effects of a developed road network. It can afford insurgents a degree of operational mobility almost commensurate with that which it offers the counterinsurgent – increased civilian traffic flow and the development of public transport provides cover for both the covert movement of insurgent elements and the smuggling of resources. The requirement to regulate this flow, and protect the infrastructure of the road network itself, can often present a heavy burden on security forces.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Transition in Time of War - Gordon Lubold, Christian Science Monitor

The Pentagon is making a pointed effort to ensure that the transition to a new administration in January 2009 – the first time in 40 years that a handover of power will take place during wartime – goes smoothly, minimizing the risk of disruptions or attacks on military operations during the changeover…. Meanwhile, Gates's reputation for demanding accountability without trumpeting his own personality is popular across the department and in Congress, too. "I think he may be the best secretary of defense we ever had," says one active-duty Army officer in high-level circles.

Pentagon to Consult Academics on Security - Patricia Cohen, New York Times

Eager to embrace eggheads and ideas, the Pentagon has started an ambitious and unusual program to recruit social scientists and direct the nation’s brainpower to combating security threats like the Chinese military, Iraq, terrorism and religious fundamentalism. Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates has compared the initiative - named Minerva, after the Roman goddess of wisdom (and warriors) - to the government’s effort to pump up its intellectual capital during the cold war after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957. Although the Pentagon regularly finances science and engineering research, systematic support for the social sciences and humanities has been rare. Minerva is the first systematic effort in this area since the Vietnam War, said Thomas G. Mahnken, deputy assistant secretary of defense for policy planning, whose office will be overseeing the project.

GAO Agrees with Boeing in Tanker Contract - Dana Hedgpeth, Washington Post

The Government Accountability Office has sustained a protest from Boeing on a $40 billion contract awarded to rival Northrop Grumman to build new aerial refueling tankers for the Air Force, saying "a number of significant errors" had been made in the evaluations of the heated competition. The GAO said it recommends that the Air Force "reopen discussions with the offerors, obtain revised proposals, re-evaluate the revised proposals and make a new source selection decision." The Air Force has 60 days to tell the GAO how it will proceed. Boeing, which built the Air Force's existing tankers, filed a protest with the agency on March 11 after it lost the deal to build 179 new refueling aircraft.

GAO Hits Air Force Deal - Sean Lengell, Washington Times

Congress' investigative arm Wednesday sharply rebuked the Air Force's awarding of a $35 billion aircraft contract to a European-American team over U.S.-based Boeing Co., and recommended the deal be re-evaluated and the bidding process reopened. News of the Government Accountability Office (GAO) report was greeted enthusiastically by Boeing supporters on Capitol Hill, particularly those from Washington state and Kansas, where Boeing had proposed to build its plane.

GAO Sustains Boeing Protest - Samuel Mahaney, National Security Review

The Air Force continues to get knocked around like a ping pong ball over the award of its tanker replacement contract to Northrop Grumman / European Aeronautic Defence and Space Company (NG/EADS). The GAO has sustained the Boeing Company’s protest and has given the Air Force 60 days to respond to the GAO’s recommendations. The GAO’s sustainment of Boeings protest should not be seen as a “reversal” of the tanker deal as the LA Times Headline reported on-line just a few minutes ago. It is, however, a recommendation by the GAO that the Air Force reopen discussions with Boeing and NG/EADS to obtain and evaluate revised proposals and make a new decision concerning the contract award.

GAO: Boeing was Right - Sharon Weinberger, Danger Room

I think I hear the sound of champagne corks popping somewhere in Boeing headquarters. In a surprise decision, the Government Accountability Office has sided with the Chicago-based company in its bid to overturn a multi-billion contract for aerial refueling tankers (see the decision here). The GAO today sustained the Boeing protest, concluding that the "Air Force had made a number of significant errors that could have affected the outcome of what was a close competition between Boeing and Northrop Grumman." The deal could be worth as much as $100 billion, ultimately.

DoD Paradigm Shift and the Navy - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Today we turn our attention to an article recently published in the 2008 Summer Washington Quarterly by Michael J. Mazarr. Michael J. Mazarr, a professor of national security strategy at the US National War College, brings a thought provoking article regarding the Paradigm Shift in the DoD towards asymmetrical warfare that is sure to be cited in future research. As a 33 page PDF, we believe those who take the minutes to read in full will be rewarded with a thoughtful view for consideration regarding the current military retooling effort. Naturally, over the coming days we will discuss this contribution in more depth.

DARPA Brain Drain Costs Agency $32 Million - Noah Shachtman, Danger Room

The US military is shifting $32 million away from its premiere research agency -- because that agency, DARPA, can't find enough qualified people to run its cutting-edge projects. A Pentagon "reprogramming action," obtained by Danger Room, takes the cash from DARPA to "fund higher priorities within the Department" -- including "infrastructure to prevent IT security breaches." That money is available, the document adds, because the agency "continues to underexecute its Research, Development, Test and Evaluation programs."

UK MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

New Rules: Women on Front Line - Page, Evans and Elliot, Times of London

Commanding officers said that soldiers were now routinely selected for operations regardless of their gender.About a fifth of the 8,000 Service personnel in Afghanistan are women, even though they make up just a tenth of total army numbers. Army rules forbid the deployment of women in operations where they would be expected to “close with and kill the enemy”. But senior officers said last night that all operations outside base camps could be regarded as on the front line. Gerald Howarth, the Tory Shadow Defence Minister, called on the Government to make clear its position on the role of women in frontline positions. “There is no doubt in my mind that the Government needs to clarify that it is adhering to its own guidelines,” he told The Times. He added that the guidelines needed to be “appropriate to the shifting nature of the threat in Afghanistan”.

PRIVATE MILITARY COMPANIES

Mr. Smith Goes to War With KBR - New York Times editorial

In the annals of Iraq war profiteering, put Charles Smith down as one of the casualties. Four years ago, Army auditors notified Mr. Smith, a Pentagon contract manager, that KBR, the Bush administration’s most favored defense contractor, could not adequately explain more than $1 billion in war billings. Mr. Smith, a career civilian employee, did his duty: He confronted KBR and warned that unless they supplied credible justification, he would levy penalties of 15 percent on future work payments while also, needless to say, blocking any performance bonuses for the company. Whoops. Mr. Smith was replaced suddenly by the brass in overseeing the contract and the Pentagon took the unusual step of second-guessing its own auditors by hiring an outside contractor to reconsider the claims from KBR.

US DEPARTMENT OF STATE

State Dept vs Colonial Office? - Charlie, Abu Muqawama

We've discussed State's staffing problem before. Charlie has yet to hear a good reason why we shouldn't double the number of FSOs (there's currently a significant shortage of officers at a myriad of posts as a result of staffing shortages and the behemoth Embassy Baghdad). But while Charlie spends a fair amount of time explaining FSO culture to her students (and has a fair degree of sympathy for them and their work), State doesn't exactly get a free pass around here. Unlike the Pentagon, currently benefiting from rare, gifted leadership by Secretary Gates, State suffers under Secretary Rice (to the point that Gates is a much better advocate for State than she is). They are adrift, and major changes are required as we move forward in the Long War.

AFRICA

South African Leader Visits Mugabe - Dugger and Cowell, New York Times

With Zimbabwe’s runoff election only nine days away, President Thabo Mbeki of South Africa, the region’s most powerful nation, met Wednesday with Zimbabwe’s strongman, President Robert Mugabe, as a rising chorus of voices warned that a fair vote could be impossible. It is far from clear that Mr. Mbeki, chosen by regional leaders to mediate Zimbabwe’s political crisis, has the clout to persuade Mr. Mugabe to halt the systematic, state-sponsored efforts to intimidate the political opposition and use violence against it. Mr. Mugabe has vowed in recent days to go to war if he loses after 28 years in power.

Mugabe's Mobs Target Families - Jan Raath, Times of London

The families of Zimbabwe's opposition leaders are being targeted for brutal execution in the latest twist to the brutal electoral violence gripping the country. With Robert Mugabe seeking to stifle the challenge to his power before a presidential run-off vote on June 27 the most recent victim of the his supporters was the wife of the unofficial mayor of Harare. Abigail Chitoro was so badly beaten by the mob that dragged her and her four-year-old son from their home that even her brother-in-law struggled to identify the body.

UN Chief Questions Zimbabwe Vote - BBC News

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has said the violence in Zimbabwe could undermine the outcome of the presidential run-off election. "Violence, intimidation and the arrest of opposition leaders are not conducive to credible elections," he told the UN General Assembly in New York. President Robert Mugabe faces a strong challenge from opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in the 27 June vote.

Impending Food Crisis in Zimbabwe - Colum Lynch, Washington Post

A UN food survey of Zimbabwe concluded that poor weather, skyrocketing inflation and a shortage of seeds and fertilizers are conspiring to fuel one of the worst food crises in that country in more than 15 years. The UN study, conducted in April and May by the World Food Program and the Rome-based Food and Agricultural Organization, estimated that about 5 million people in Zimbabwe -- nearly half the population -- will need food assistance by early 2009. The report said Zimbabwe will have to allow international humanitarian groups to scale up their operations to meet an estimated shortfall of 395,000 tons of food, and called on the government to lift restrictions on private entrepreneurs who sell seed and fertilizers to local farmers.

Mugabe Vows to Hold Power - Robert Bate, Wall Street Journal opinion

Robert Mugabe, the increasingly belligerent and unstable 84-year-old Zimbabwean president, has a warning for those who might vote for Morgan Tsvangirai in next week's presidential runoff: "We fought for this country, and a lot of blood was shed," he told the state-controlled Herald newspaper here. "We are not going to give up our country because of a mere X. How can a ballpoint [pen] fight with a gun?" Still, Zimbabwe's dictator is using every means at his disposal to assure that all the Xs go by his name. The surge of violence and voter intimidation in urban and rural areas is clearly being orchestrated by Mugabe's army. Torture camps, where people are "educated" on how to vote, are widely reported.

Rebels, Soldiers Peace Talks Stalled - Whitney Stewart, Washington Times

Talks between the Ugandan government and the rebel Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) further stalled this month in the southern Sudanese city of Juba amid reports of new atrocities being committed by the LRA in Sudan and Congo. But humanitarian aid workers remain cautiously optimistic that a peace agreement will be reached and that the people of northern Uganda will continue to rebuild after two decades of civil war.

Forces Deployed to Sudan's Oil-rich Abyei Region - Associated Press

Sudan's army and former southern rebels began deploying their forces Wednesday under a joint command in the oil-rich Abyei region of Sudan following last month's agreement to contain recent fighting. Atem Garang, a senior southern official and deputy national parliament speaker, said only the joint forces and UN peacekeepers will be in Abyei, which lies just north of the disputed boundary line with southern Sudan. The dispute over the region threatened to derail a three-year-old peace agreement in Sudan that ended two decades of civil war between the north and south.

Darfur Rebels on Trial for Attack Near Khartoum - Associated Press

Darfur rebel suspects appeared in court Wednesday over their alleged roles in an attack near the capital last month that left 200 dead and shocked the government. Prosecutors accused the defendants of conspiring against the constitution, waging war against the state and terrorizing civilians. Lawyers said that they could face the death penalty if convicted. The suspects were arrested after the May 10 attack near Khartoum by the rebel Justice and Equality Movement. It was the closest Darfur rebels have ever come to Sudan's seat of government, hundreds of miles from their bases in the far west of the country.

Shell Shuts Down Nigerian Oil Field - Associated Press

Royal Dutch Shell says it has shut down production at a Nigerian oil field that produces about 200,000 barrels per day after a militant attack. A Nigerian militant leader says his group launched a rare attack against one of the company's offshore oil installations, more than 65 miles from land. The fighters said they weren't able to enter a computer control room that they had hoped to destroy to cripple production.

Somalia Fighting Kills 17 Despite Peace Pact - Reuters

Fighting between Islamist-led insurgents and allied Somali-Ethiopian troops has killed at least 17 people, residents said on Wednesday, underlining the lack of impact of a U.N.-brokered peace agreement. One attack on a troop patrol on Tuesday night prompted return fire towards Mogadishu's SOS hospital, killing three people outside, witnesses said. Stray bullets from crossfire killed another three in a separate incident about the same time. Mogadishu resident Fatuma Hussein said a mortar landed on her neighbor's house, also on Tuesday night, killing a woman and two children.

Somalis Flee Terror, Pour Into Kenya - Elizabeth Kennedy, Associated Press

They are among some 20,000 Somalis who decided to flee their homeland this year, heading to the Dadaab refugee camp in eastern Kenya where they recalled a life of terror in Mogadishu. For the refugees, this dusty, sweltering expanse is still a better home than their wretched capital. Just 50 miles from the Somali border, many see the camp as a last resort.

AMERICAS

Coca Cultivation Rises In Colombia - Juan Forero, Washington Post

The amount of land devoted to production of coca, the leaf used to make cocaine, has grown at a dramatic pace in Colombia despite a huge American-funded counter-drug program of aerial fumigation and aggressive interdiction, a UN agency said Wednesday. In a 132-page report based on satellite imagery and on-the-ground surveys, the United Nations' Office on Drugs and Crime said that Colombian farmers planted 245,000 acres of coca last year, 27 percent more than in 2006. Coca cultivation in the world's three top producers, Colombia, Peru and Bolivia, increased 16 percent, to 448,743 acres, a swath of land slightly smaller than Delaware.

Venezuela Puts Troops on Buses to Deter Crime - Associated Press

Venezuela's government started posting National Guard troops on buses Wednesday to try to prevent violent crime. About 500 guardsmen have been assigned to ride on buses in Caracas as a deterrent against frequent armed robberies and killings of bus drivers, Gen. Alirio Ramirez told the state-run Bolivarian News Agency. Some will escort buses by motorcycle through crime-prone areas. President Hugo Chavez announced the idea on his Sunday television and radio program, but it wasn't clear if the project would be permanent. Polls regularly show that crime is Venezuelans' leading concern - above unemployment and inflation.

Castro Video Puts Rumors to Rest - Jeff Franks, Reuters

Former Cuban President Fidel Castro's appearance in a televised video on Tuesday night put to rest the latest rumors of his imminent demise and suggested he still plays a significant role in Cuba's government. Castro, 81, looked vigorous as he chatted with his close ally, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and his brother, Cuban President Raul Castro, in a sun-dappled garden in the first public images of the ailing former leader since mid-January. The man who took power in a 1959 revolution and led Cuba for 49 years has not been seen in public since undergoing intestinal surgery in July 2006, but has surfaced sporadically in videos and photographs shown in the island's state-run media.

ASIA PACIFIC

N. Korea: Concessions Outweigh US Cost - Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Wednesday that the cost the United States has paid so far in its effort to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons is much smaller than the concessions made by Pyongyang. She said, however, that President Bush intends to remove North Korea from the blacklist of state sponsors of terrorism, contingent on a nuclear declaration the North will provide "soon" to China, which hosts six-country negotiations.

China Tells N. Korea Nuclear Talks Should Move Forward - Reuters

China's heir-apparent Xi Jinping told North Korea's leader on Wednesday the country had a new opportunity to resume stalled talks on nuclear disarmament, Chinese state media reported. Xi's June 17-19 visit to Pyongyang is his first trip abroad as vice president and is aimed at shoring up ties with China's difficult and isolated neighbor. It is the latest diplomatic effort toward restarting the six-party talks that Beijing hosts and that include the two Koreas, the United States, Japan and Russia.

Taiwan Outlines Policy Toward China - Bradsher and Wong, New York Times

President Ma Ying-jeou of Taiwan called on Wednesday for a rapid expansion of economic relations between Taiwan and mainland China over the next year or two that would go far beyond the weekend charter flights and increased tourism announced last Friday. Mr. Ma said he wanted broad access to the mainland market for Taiwanese financial services businesses, an end to double taxation by government agencies in Taipei and Beijing and the removal of investment restrictions.

China Keeping Tight Grip on Tibet - Michael Bristow, BBC News

China appears to be maintaining a tight grip over Tibetan areas, nearly three months after a series of anti-Beijing protests and riots. The government suggests life in areas inhabited by Tibetans is returning to normal, but evidence suggests otherwise. Security is tight, Tibetans face travel restrictions, and monks and nuns have been forced to attend re-education classes. Chinese tourists are once again being allowed to visit the Himalayan region, but not many are making the trip. Foreigners are banned.

Abu Sayyaf Free News Crew - Carlos Conde, New York Times

Abu Sayyaf militants have released members of a news team they abducted last week in the southern Philippines, among them one of the country’s best-known television journalists, officials said Wednesday. The journalist, Ces Drilon, and a cameraman and a guide were abducted June 8 on their way to interview members of Abu Sayyaf. A driver was released more than a week ago, and the others late Tuesday.

Amnesty Seeks 'Missing' Tibetans - BBC News

More than 1,000 Tibetans detained during protests against the Chinese government in March remain unaccounted for, Amnesty International says. In a report, the human rights group said there were reports that detainees had been beaten and deprived of food. Ahead of the Olympic torch relay through Tibet, Amnesty asked China to "shine some light" on the situation. China says rioters killed at least 19 people. Tibetan exiles say security forces killed dozens of people.

EUROPE

Rules on Illegal Immigrants Are Approved - Molly Moore, Washington Post

The European Parliament approved new rules Wednesday designed to standardize the dramatic differences in member countries' treatment of illegal immigrants, whose presence is one of the most heated political issues in Europe today. The measure, which would allow countries to jail illegal immigrants for as long as 18 months pending deportation, was decried by human rights organizations as promoting excessive detention. Supporters defended it as providing greater protections for the foreigners in countries that now permit indefinite detentions and grant detainees few legal rights.

EU Passes Tough Migrant Measure - Caroline Brothers, New York Times

European Union lawmakers voted Wednesday to allow undocumented migrants to be held in detention centers for up to 18 months and banned from European Union territory for five years. Criticized by groups like Amnesty International as “severely flawed” and an erosion of human rights standards, the so-called return directive was passed in the European Parliament here by a 369-to-197 vote, with 106 legislators abstaining. Manfred Weber, the German center-right legislator from Bavaria who shepherded the measure through Parliament, said that it provided minimum common standards for the treatment of migrants throughout the European Union while still showing citizens it was tough on illegality.

Britain Green Light to Crippled EU Treaty - Francis Elliott, Times of London

Gordon Brown cleared the final hurdle of the race to complete Britain’s ratification of the EU reform treaty last night after a last-ditch effort to delay it failed in the House of Lords. Protesters had to be cleared from the public gallery as the six-month parliamentary passage of the Bill to ratify the Lisbon treaty reached a dramatic conclusion. Opponents had sought to delay its completion by four months in the wake of the Irish referendum, arguing that the “no” vote had dealt the treaty a fatal blow.

Lithuania Eyed as Missile Shield Host - Judy Dempsey, New York Times

Poland is balking at further negotiations with the United States over plans to deploy an anti-ballistic missile shield, prompting Washington to seek out Lithuania, formerly part of the Soviet Union, as a possible alternate location, officials said Wednesday. The American approach to Lithuania is likely to stir fresh tensions with Russia, which has already threatened to take measures if Washington deploys the shield’s missile interceptors in Poland and its radarsin the Czech Republic. Both are NATO countries that once belonged to the defunct, Soviet-led Warsaw Pact.

Charges in Death of Russian Reporter - Peter Finn, Washington Post

Three men were charged Wednesday with involvement in the October 2006 killing of investigative reporter Anna Politkovskaya, but investigators said nothing about who ordered the assassination or why. A man formally identified by authorities last month as the shooter remains at large, as does the unknown person who organized the murder. Politkovskaya, a critic of the Kremlin known for crusading reports on human rights abuses in Chechnya, was shot in the lobby of her apartment building in central Moscow as she was returning home with groceries. Police immediately described it as a contract killing. The murder weapon was dropped beside the body.

Georgian Authorities Free Russian Peacekeepers - Associated Press

Georgian authorities on Wednesday released four Russian peacekeepers who were detained on charges of carrying unauthorized weapons to a buffer zone near the breakaway region of Abkhazia. Georgian officials said they would keep the load of anti-tank missiles they seized from the Russians late Tuesday. Local Gov. Zaza Gorozia said the Russians were not authorized to take the weapons into the area. Abkhazia has been a source of tension for Russia and Georgia for more than a decade, and the seizure of the weapons only served to escalate the spat and prompted the presidents of the two countries to talk by telephone Wednesday.

UN Srebrenica Immunity Questioned - BBC News

A Dutch court is considering whether the UN can be sued for failing to prevent the massacre of thousands of Bosnian Muslims at Srebrenica in 1995. About 6,000 relatives of those killed have brought a case against the UN and the Dutch government over the killings. Dutch peacekeepers, under a UN flag, failed to intervene as Bosnian Serb forces killed more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys in one week in July 1995. The enclave had been designated a UN safe haven. The UN has refused to take part in the case, claiming immunity - a position backed by the Dutch government.

Turkish Regress - Wall Street Journal editorial

Turkey's soccer team scored three goals in the last 15 minutes against the Czechs the other night to make the quarterfinals of the European championship. Now if only miracles happened in Turkish politics. The country needs one to get out of its latest self-inflicted crisis. For the second time in a year, a clash between the old secular establishment and an elected government with roots in Islam has split and paralyzed Turkey. Tensions look bound to escalate, putting the Muslim world's strongest democracy in peril.

MIDDLE EAST

Israel Open to Deal With Lebanon - Bronner and Worth, New York Times

Israel offered on Wednesday to start direct peace talks with Lebanon, saying all issues would be negotiable, including a tiny piece of Israeli-held land on the countries’ border that Israel has long argued does not belong to Lebanon but that the Lebanese say is theirs. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Israel over the weekend and made a surprise stop in Lebanon on Monday. On her trips, she spoke to both the Israeli and Lebanese governments about Washington’s desire to find a solution to the land dispute as a catalyst for solving bigger issues in the region, including strengthening the Lebanese government of Prime Minister Fouad Siniora, a senior Israeli official said, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agreed to this.

Israel Proposes Peace Talks With Lebanon - Griff Witte, Washington Post

Israel on Wednesday publicly pushed to open peace negotiations with Lebanon, seeking to add another initiative to an already burgeoning diplomatic roster that includes talks with some of the Jewish state's foremost adversaries. While Lebanon immediately indicated it has no desire for a deal with Israel, the overture came just a day after Israel agreed to a truce with the armed Islamist group Hamas that took effect early Thursday in and around the Gaza Strip. Israel is also negotiating a prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement it fought to a standstill in 2006, and last month announced the resumption of long-stalled peace talks with Syria.

Rockets, Airstrikes Hours Before Truce - Matti Fiedman, Associated Press

Palestinian militants fired 50 rockets and mortars toward Israel on Wednesday, and Israel responded with airstrikes in Gaza just hours before a truce was to take effect, illustrating how fragile the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas would be. In another diplomatic initiative, Israel called on neighboring Lebanon to open peace negotiations - an overture that was quickly rejected by Lebanon's prime minister.

Compromised Olmert Reaches Out - Times of London editorial

It is often that a new chance for peace in the Middle East comes when things are at their bleakest. Tensions build, talk of war grows, then the kaleidoscope is shaken and a new pattern emerges. The flurry of initiatives now coming from Israel makes the point. Yesterday Ehud Olmert, the Prime Minister, signed a ceasefire with Hamas, under which the Palestinian militant group in Gaza today will halt the barrage of rockets fired daily into Israel, and the Israelis in turn will lift the crippling economic embargo that has kept the border crossings closed for the past six months (see page 36). Yesterday also the Israeli Government called on Lebanon to begin peace talks, offering in return to put every issue on the table. At the same time, it has emerged that Israel's indirect talks in Turkey with Syria have gone so well that there are proposals for a meeting between Mr Olmert and President Assad in Paris, the first face-to-face meeting ever to be held between the two countries' leaders.

Truce in Gaza - Washington Post editorial

A truce between Israel and Hamas was to begin this morning in the Gaza Strip, ending daily barrages of rockets that have terrorized nearby Israeli towns as well as counterstrikes that have killed more than 350 Palestinians this year. In accepting the Egyptian-brokered deal, Israel embraced the least bad of the limited options it has for countering Hamas, which has been turning Gaza into a fortified base for advancing the cause of Islamist extremism in the region -- a cause it shares with Iran. For a while, Israeli civilians will be relieved from having to duck into bomb shelters, and Gazans will be better supplied with food and other essential goods. How long the peace lasts, and whether it does more good than harm, will depend on how well Israel and Hamas's moderate Palestinian rivals use the calm.

Strengthening Extremists - Nicholas Kristof, New York Times opinion

The yearlong siege of Gaza may soon end with the new cease-fire there, marking the eclipse of one more American-backed Israeli policy that backfired by strengthening extremists. Here in Gaza, sulfurous with fumes from cars burning cooking grease because the siege has made gasoline scarce, the entire last year of the blockade feels not only morally bankrupt - a case of collective punishment - but also counterproductive. The fragile new truce between Hamas and Israel just might create a new opportunity to stabilize the Palestinian territories, but only if we absorb the lessons of what has gone wrong.

SOUTH ASIA

US-India Nuclear Deal Appears In Trouble - Matthew Rosenberg, Associated Press

The future of a landmark nuclear energy accord between India and the United States looked deeply uncertain Wednesday after India's government put off talks with powerful communist opponents of the pact. The meeting is now scheduled to take place next week. But even if it goes ahead, it's unclear what difference it will make with the communist parties steadfast in their opposition, reinforcing doubts over whether the deal can be clinched before President Bush leaves office.

RECOMMENDED READING

Five Good Reads - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Five good reads.

KeepNet 18 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

More good reads.

UK CT & COIN Features - 18 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

UK CT & COIN Features - 17 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

11-12 September - DNI Open Source Conferece 2008 (Public Event - Conference). Washington, DC. Sponsored by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The Office of the DNI is pleased to announce the "DNI Open Source Conference 2008" to be held on Thursday, 11 September and Friday, 12 September, 2008 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center in Washington DC. The conference is free; however, all who wish to attend must register online in advance (deadline 31 July). The two-day conference will explore a wide range of open source issues and open source best practices for the Intelligence Community and its partners. We invite participants from the broader open source community of interest including academia, think tanks, private industry, federal, state, local and tribal entities, international partners, and the media to attend. The conference will include speakers from across the broader open source community participating in panel discussions and focus group sessions. Information about the agenda and break-out sessions is now available. The DNI Open Source Conference 2007 was held 16-17 July 2007 at the Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center. More than 900 registered participants and speakers attended. Presentations made at the conference break-out sessions are available on the DNI Open Source Conference 2007 website.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.