IRAQ

Bush Shows Optimism on Iraq Deal - Steven Lee Meyers, New York Times

President Bush expressed confidence on Saturday that the United States and Iraq would agree on a new security arrangement this year, even though his strongest ally in Iraq, Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, declared the negotiations at an impasse the previous day. Speaking here during a European trip that has been dominated by discussions of Iran, not Iraq, Mr. Bush sought to play down remarks by Mr. Maliki suggesting that the United States was making unacceptable demands on Iraq’s sovereignty. Mr. Maliki’s remarks, along with increasingly vociferous protests in Baghdad and opposition in the United States Congress, have cast doubts on the prospect for extending the legal authority for American forces to remain in Iraq after a United Nations mandate expires in December.

Iraqi Cleric Recalibrates Strategy - Paley and Sarhan, Washington Post

The movement of anti-American cleric Moqtada al-Sadr said Saturday that it would not take part in provincial elections this year, one day after it formed a new paramilitary group to fight US troops. The back-to-back moves suggested that Sadr is trying to bolster his position as the chief opponent of both the American troops in the country and the Iraqi government, following a year in which he ordered his Mahdi Army militia to observe a cease-fire and moved deeper into the political process. Sadr's aides said he is recalibrating his strategy as the American military drawdown transforms the US role in Iraq.

ISF Campaign Against Mahdi Army - Parker and Rasheed, Los Angeles Times

Iraqi security forces began to move into the southern city of Amarah on Saturday, and residents braced for the latest government offensive against the Mahdi Army militia loyal to Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr. Amarah, the capital of Maysan province, is one of the remaining bastions of the Sadr movement in Iraq. The cleric's followers control the governing council and his militia is dominant in the streets. Western officials believe many hard-core fighters associated with the Mahdi Army fled to the province from Basra after the government waged a campaign against what it called lawlessness in the southern port in late March. The campaign was seen as a drive by Prime Minister Nouri Maliki to assert his authority in the country, which has suffered from sectarian warfare and other violence in the last five years.

Troops Pour Into South Iraqi City - BBC News

Iraqi troops and police backed by US forces have been sent to the southern city of Amara in a fresh operation against Shia gunmen, officials say. Iraqi army tanks have been patrolling major streets in the city and the security forces set up checkpoints. Correspondents say the new operation is the latest drive by Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki to impose his authority. Hundreds were reported killed in March in battles which began in Basra and spread to Baghdad and elsewhere.

Iraq Focus as Bush Arrives in UK - BBC News

US President George Bush is due to arrive in the UK as he nears the end of what is expected to be his final tour of Europe before leaving office. After meeting the Queen in Windsor, Mr Bush will have dinner with Prime Minister Gordon Brown. The visit will include talks on coordinating allied strategy in Iraq. Mr Bush tells the Observer newspaper the US and UK want to withdraw troops but this should be "based on success" and not a "definitive timetable".

A Partnership With Iraq - Washington Post editorial

Though it was hardly noticed in Washington, Iraq's Shiite-led government sent a powerful message to Iran and to the Middle East last week. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, whose coalition is often portrayed as an Iranian client, traveled to Tehran for a meeting with supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The ayatollah bluntly declared that Iraq's "most important problem" was the continuing presence of US troops. He pressured Mr. Maliki to stop negotiating a package of agreements with the Bush administration that would delineate a "strategic framework" between Iraq and the United States and provide for the deployment of US forces beyond the expiration of a UN mandate at the end of this year. Mr. Maliki refused. He assured his Iranian hosts that Iraq would not be a launching pad for an American attack on Iran. But he pointedly told a press briefing that negotiations on the strategic partnership would continue.

Iraq, the Sovereign Colony? - Boston Globe editorial

President Bush has been treating Iraq less as an ally than a vassal. He has been pushing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to accept two long-term agreements that would, as many Iraqis rightly object, compromise Iraq's sovereignty and independence. Bush and Maliki agreed in November on principles for a "status of forces agreement," which will be needed as a legal basis for American troops to remain in Iraq after the United Nations' mandate for them expires Dec. 31. The agreement would set rules for US forces in Iraq. Since March, Iraqis and Americans have also been negotiating a "strategic framework agreement" to define more broadly the long-term political and diplomatic relations between the two countries. The two agreements have been reopened for negotiation. Though Bush speaks of Iraq as a free, democratic ally, the original versions gave the United States privileges in Iraq more suitable to the relationship between a colonial power and its protectorate.

Iraq in Review - Victor Davis Hanson, National Review opinion

Many commentators on Iraq had no strong ideas about the wisdom of removing Saddam Hussein, but often predicated their evolving views on the basis of whether we were perceived as winning or losing - and later made the necessary and often fluid adjustments. So in light of the changing pulse of the battlefield, it is time once again to examine carefully a few of the now commonplace critiques of the Iraq war.

Taking the War to the Dems - Charles Krauthammer, National Review opinion

In his St. Paul victory speech, Barack Obama pledged again to pull out of Iraq. Rather than “continue a policy in Iraq that asks everything of our brave men and women in uniform and nothing of Iraqi politicians... It’s time for Iraqis to take responsibility for their future.” We know Obama hasn’t been to Iraq in more than two years, but does he not read the papers? Does he not know anything about developments on the ground? Here is the “nothing” that Iraqis have been doing in the last few months...

Sadrist's Withdraw from Political Process - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Muqtada al Sadr has ordered the Sadrist political movement to boycott the upcoming provincial elections. Sadr's order comes one day after his order to disband the Mahdi Army as a fighting force and the creations of a small armed wing to attack Coalition forces exclusively. Sadrist aides claim Sadr rejects the election process and fears being associated with the occupation. "Sayyid Muqtada does not believe in elections or in the coming provincial governments as long as the occupation forces are here," Salah al Obaidi, a senior aide to Sadr told The Washington Post.

Army Detains Senior Mahdi Army Commander - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The US Army captured a senior Mahdi Army military commanderin Baghdad. The Mahdi Army commander led a 2,000-man strong brigade in the Karadah district in eastern Baghdad, Multinational Forces Iraq reported. The US military could not release the commander’s name as they are still exploiting the intelligence information related to his capture, Major Joey Sullinger, a public affairs officer for Multinational Division Baghdad told The Long War Journal. The commander was detained during a raid in the Sumer al Ghadier neighborhood in the New Baghdad district, which borders Karadah to the north. US soldiers from the 66th Armor Regiment detained the Mahdi Army leader “while conducting operations specifically targeting him." The commander was wanted by the government or Iraq for “for committing crimes against the people of Iraq.”

Iraqi Offensive Underway - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Iraqi security forces, backed by the US military, have started an operation against the Mahdi Army in the southern border province of Maysan. Amarah, the provincial capital of Maysan, is thought to be one of the locations senior Mahdi Army leader retreated to after Iraqi forces moved into Sadr City last month. Amarah is also a forward command and control hub for Iranian operations in southern Iraq.

Where Does Maliki Stand? - Dr. iRack, Abu Muqawama

The talks over the long-term U.S.-Iraq strategic framework, including the SOFA, remain at an impasse. So where does Maliki really stand? Here it is helpful to review three emerging factions within the Iraqi body politic.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

A Sober Assessment of Afghanistan - Ann Scott Tyson, Washington Post

The outgoing top US military commander in Afghanistan said Friday that attacks increased 50 percent in April in the country's eastern region, where U.S. troops primarily operate, as a spreading Taliban insurgency across the border in Pakistan fueled a surge in violence. In a sober assessment, Gen. Dan K. McNeill, who departed June 3 after 16 months commanding NATO's International Security Assistance Force, or ISAF, said that although record levels of foreign and Afghan troops have constrained repeated Taliban offensives, stabilizing Afghanistan will be impossible without a more robust military campaign against insurgent havens in Pakistan. The Taliban is "resurgent in the region," particularly in sanctuaries in Pakistan, and as a result "it's going to be difficult to take on this insurgent group... in the broader sort of way," McNeill said at a Pentagon news conference.

US Uneasy as Pakistan Bargains with Militants - Laura King, Los Angeles Times

The jirgas, or traditional tribal gatherings, continue late into the night. And every few weeks, from some remote corner of Pakistan's untamed frontier region, word filters out: Another truce has been struck between the government and a local warlord who commands a band of pro-Taliban fighters. For nearly two months, Pakistan's new government has been engaged in intensive negotiations with Islamic militants who use the rugged tribal areas along the border with Afghanistan as both a sanctuary and a springboard for attacks. North Atlantic Treaty Organization and US officials have voiced increasing concern over the nature and scope of such negotiations and the resulting agreements. Under them, militant factions have received significant concessions, including the release of dozens of prisoners and the granting of what is in effect amnesty to fugitive commanders who were on most-wanted lists.

A Bloody Risky Way to Beat the Taliban - Stephen Grey, Times of London

Earlier this year I spent several weeks with British forces in Helmand. A common view among the troops was summed up by a lance-bombardier from the Royal Artillery with whom I spent some time: “We’re here simply to pick up the pieces. We made a mess of this place and we have a responsibility to sort this out, to get things straight.” It seemed a less lofty goal than that expressed by Browne, but also a more honourable and more realistic statement. When it comes to “sorting out the mess we made”, Britain is fighting to put back together a country that has never recovered not only from the war the West funded against the Russians, and the anarchy that followed America’s toppling of the Taliban government, but also the follies of British commanders’ early actions.

4 Marines Killed in Bombing - Zucchino and Faiez, Los Angeles Times

In the worst single attack on US or coalition forces in Afghanistan this year, four Marines with a unit based at Twentynine Palms were killed in a roadside bombing Saturday, the military reported. A fifth Marine was wounded in the attack. Military spokesmen provided no details of the bombing pending notification of the victims' next of kin. The Marines, with the 2nd Battalion, 7th Marine Regiment, arrived in Afghanistan in April to help train and mentor struggling Afghan national police units in Farah and Helmand provinces in southwest Afghanistan.

NATO Concedes Taleban Jail Blow - BBC News

NATO has admitted a jail-break by hundreds of prisoners after Taleban fighters blew up a Kandahar prison gate was a success for the Taleban. But a NATO spokesman said the mass escape was an isolated incident that did not mean the militants were gaining strength in Afghanistan generally. Afghan and NATO troops are searching for 350 militants who were among some 900 inmates to escape, officials said. Fifteen guards died in the truck bomb and rocket attack in the southern city.

15 Killed in Hunt for Afghan Inmates - Washington Times

The US-led coalition in Afghanistan says more than 15 insurgents have been killed by Afghan army and coalition forces in the southern province of Kandahar. The deaths came during a search for escaped prisoners. The US says it has not been confirmed that any of the 15 were escaped prisoners. Five militants were also taken into custody during the Saturday operation.

Rotation Brings New Hope - Waliullah Rahmani, Jamestown Foundation

With the onset of a wide operation against the Taliban in Garmsir district of Helmand province, once again the lawless Helmand province has become the focus of national and international circles. On April 30, the US Marines announced they had recaptured Garmsir district from Taliban control and entered governmental buildings (BBC Persian.com, April 30). Since this operation was launched, at least 10 insurgents have been reported killed or injured every day during the Marines’ operations in different areas of Helmand. The return of US forces to this volatile southern province has been accompanied by rumors in Helmand and Kabul that the US forces will eventually be replaced by British troops who were in charge of Helmand for the past two years. Such a development would be generally unwelcome in the province. Meanwhile, the redeployment of US troops to Helmand has brought hopes for the betterment of security and easing of the insurgency in at least parts of this neo-Taliban-dominated province. These developments in Helmand over the last two months, however, need to be examined so that there can be a clear vision of where Helmand stands and to distinguish the status of the leading players there.

Finding a Sustainable Strategy - Westhawk, Westhawk

In today’s Wall Street Journal, Ms. Ann Marlowe, an experienced reporter of the Afghan campaign, discusses the difficulties that occur when the US military replaces experienced and successful field commanders and soldiers in accordance with rotation timetables. When the old hands leave and the new men arrive, a pacified province can seem to fall apart. Does this mean that soldiers should serve in the war zone “for the duration” as many imagine was the policy during World War II? For the Long War, now almost twice the length of America’s experience in World War II, such a policy is obviously unrealistic.

IRAN

Bush, Sarkozy Warn Iran, Syria - Elizabeth Bryant, Washington Times

President Bush and French President Nicolas Sarkozy, in lockstep on a number of Middle East issues, issued warnings Saturday against Iran and Syria and reaffirmed their support for a united and independent Lebanon. "Iran getting a nuclear bomb is unacceptable," Mr. Bush said at a press conference at the Elysee presidential palace in Paris. "It´s an unacceptable threat for the stability of the world." Mr. Bush's warning against Tehran, coming hours after Iran appeared to reject a new European Union offer to end the standoff over its nuclear program, was echoed by Mr. Sarkozy, who described a nuclear-armed Iran as "totally unacceptable."

Iran Rejects Six-Nation Proposal - Erdbrink and Wright, Washington Post

Iran said Saturday that a package of incentives offered by six countries was "out of the question" because it includes a demand for the country to suspend uranium enrichment activities. The European Union foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, presented the proposal to Iranian authorities Saturday on behalf of the United States, China, France, Germany, Britain and Russia. He told reporters in Tehran, the Iranian capital, that the offer was "generous and comprehensive and a starting point for real negotiations" on the country's nuclear program.

Iran Offered Incentives - Mostaghim and Daragahi, Los Angeles Times

World powers urged Iran on Saturday to suspend its controversial enrichment of uranium in exchange for a new package of economic and political incentives. But the proposal appeared to differ little from one rejected in 2006, and Tehran appeared poised to spurn the latest offer as well. "Iran does not accept any precondition which implies suspension of uranium enrichment," said Gholamhossein Elham, a spokesman for the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Iran Spurns New Offer on Uranium - Erlanger and Sciolino, New York Times

President Bush accused Iran on Saturday of rejecting a new set of incentives to stop enriching uranium, only hours after the proposal received a cold shoulder when it was delivered by Western diplomats in Tehran. Tehran did not formally reject the offer, meaning that it may be able, as Western officials fear, to play for time, saying that it is in an ongoing dialogue with the West while continuing to enrich uranium to secure the amounts necessary to build a nuclear bomb.

THE LONG WAR

Get Bin Laden Before I Leave Office - Sarah Baxter, Times of London

President George W Bush has enlisted British special forces in a final attempt to capture Osama Bin Laden before he leaves the White House. Defence and intelligence sources in Washington and London confirmed that a renewed hunt was on for the leader of the September 11 attacks. “If he [Bush] can say he has killed Saddam Hussein and captured Bin Laden, he can claim to have left the world a safer place,” said a US intelligence source. The Special Boat Service (SBS) and the Special Reconnaissance Regiment have been taking part in the US-led operations to capture Bin Laden in the wild frontier region of northern Pakistan. It is the first time they have operated across the Afghan border on a regular basis.

Smugglers Had Design For Advanced Warhead - Joby Warrick, Washington Post

An international smuggling ring that sold bomb-related parts to Libya, Iran and North Korea also managed to acquire blueprints for an advanced nuclear weapon, according to a draft report by a former top UN arms inspector that suggests the plans could have been shared secretly with any number of countries or rogue groups. The drawings, discovered in 2006 on computers owned by Swiss businessmen, included essential details for building a compact nuclear device that could be fitted on a type of ballistic missile used by Iran and more than a dozen developing countries, the report states.

Detainees May Be Denied Evidence for Defense - Josh White, Washington Post

The Justice Department has argued that the Supreme Court's decision last week granting the Guantanamo detainees the right to challenge their detentions in US courts should not affect the military trials process. The department contends that the government plans to go ahead with military commissions for those who are facing war crimes charges. Though the top legal adviser for the commissions process, Air Force Brig. Gen. Thomas W. Hartmann, has said that the trials would be "fair, just and transparent" and that detainees would have full access to the evidence against them, Pentagon officials have now backed off of those claims. The Office of Military Commissions said last week that defendants representing themselves might not get access to information about their interrogators and that secret information might have to be redacted in order to be shared with them.

Habeas Ruling Lays Bare Justice Divide - Barnes and Wilber, Washington Post

The Supreme Court's decision that detainees held in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, have a right to challenge their imprisonment before a judge revealed in vivid detail the justices' deep divide over the role of the judiciary in wartime. As a practical matter, the 5 to 4 decision returns to the spotlight Washington's federal district judges, who are now conferring to develop a framework for handling about 200 cases filed by those the government suspects of terrorism held at the island naval base.

Combating the Combatants Decision - National Review editorial

All hail the imperial court. In a bitterly divided 5-4 decision, the Supreme Court ruled Thursday in Boumediene v. Bush that alien enemy prisoners, waging a jihad against the American people and captured by our military in a war authorized by Congress, have a right - under our Constitution - to petition our courts for their release. So doing, the Court invalidated laws it had only recently implored Congress to enact, laws that provided these prisoners with generous protections never previously extended to enemy operatives in American history. Justice Anthony Kennedy, writing for Justices John Paul Stevens, David Souter, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and Stephen Breyer, dictates that Americans must regard enemies as if they were mere criminal defendants, entitled to an exacting legal process - access to discovery, witnesses, counsel, etc. - that will, as a practical matter, make it impossible to detain them without shutting down interrogations prematurely and informing the enemy of our national-defense secrets. There can be no justification for this stunning conclusion. Habeas corpus is the right to have the lawfulness of one’s detention tested before a judge. It is enshrined in the Suspension Clause (Art. I, Sec. 9) of the Constitution - the compact between the American people and the government they created - in order to protect Americans from arbitrary arrest and adhesive conditions of confinement. As a judicial remedy, it extends only where the federal courts have jurisdiction.

Supreme Disgrace - Peter Wehner, National Review opinion

I have now read through the Supreme Court’s decision, as well as the dissents, in Boumediene v. Bush, in which the Court held that foreign terrorism suspects held at Guantánamo Bay have constitutional rights to challenge their detention there in U.S. courts. In doing so, the Court, in Chief Justice Roberts’s words, “strikes down as inadequate the most generous set of procedural protections ever afforded aliens detained by this country as enemy combatants.” It’s worth considering what needed to be done in order to achieve this outcome. The Court decided that for the first time in American history, non-American enemy combatants detained abroad, in the course of an ongoing war, had a constitutional right to habeas corpus (a proceeding used to review the legality of a prisoner’s confinement in criminal cases).

Pay Attention to Pakistan - Trudy Rubin, Miami Herald opinion

The most urgent foreign policy problem that the next US president will face won't be Iraq. Nor will it be Iran. The next terrorist attack on America is likely to originate, according to the top US military commander, Adm. Mike Mullen, in a place you've probably never heard of: the FATA. That's the acronym for the Federally Ad ministered Tribal Areas of northern Pakistan. The FATA is a lawless expanse along the Afghan border where al Qaeda, the Taliban and other jihadi groups now base. From these safe havens they attack NATO troops in Afghanistan, plan terrorist attacks abroad and threaten Pakistan itself - a nuclear state. Neither Pakistani officials nor the Bush administration have a strategy to curb FATA's jihadis. Indeed, the situation seems to be getting worse. Under US pressure, Pakistan sent troops into FATA, but they were bloodied and unsuccessful. Geared up to fight their arch enemy India, the army was incapable of combating an insurgency.

Boumediene as War Policy - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

The high court abstained from explicitly deciding some of the ultimate questions, punting those back down to the federal district court that will hear these habeas corpus petitions. These include the question of whether the U.S. is actually at war, with whom, and whether it may detain prisoners indefinitely in that war.

"Jurisdictional Quirkiness" in the Long War - Michael Innes, CTLab

As part of Opinio Juris' insta-symposium on the Boumediene Case, University of Virigina Professor of History Paul Halliday has submitted an intriguing essay on the uses of history and analogy. Halliday, who researches "how law accommodates new political ideas and social practices," critiques some of the analytical logic in the case.

IRREGULAR WARFARE

Winning A War of Stealth - Rory Callinan, Time Magazine

Just before dawn, residents of a small village on Jolo Island, in the southern Philippines, were woken by footsteps and muffled hoofbeats. Peeking out in the dim light, they saw dozens of heavily armed men marching past their houses. One was on horseback. With a pang of fear, some villagers recognized him: Khaddafy Janjalani, leader of the Abu Sayyaf terrorist group and one of Southeast Asia's most wanted men. They had seen his face in posters advertising a $5 million reward for his capture. Most of the villagers stayed indoors. But after dawn one man stole outside. He drove to the army headquarters in Jolo, the island's main town, where he alerted military officers to the terrorists' route and their likely destination. The next day a Philippine marine reconnaissance platoon ambushed Janjalani in his jungle hideout, killing the al-Qaeda-linked terrorist and delivering what authorities believe was a crushing blow to Abu Sayyaf's morale.

Ending Child Soldiering - Radhika Coomaraswamy, Washington Times opinion

There has been significant progress recently toward ridding the world of child soldiers. In May, the US Congress took action that will advance the agenda to help protect the world's children and punish adults who seek to use them as cheap cannon-fodder in armed conflicts. In 2007, two separate bills, the Child Soldiers Prevention Act and the Child Soldiers Accountability Act, found bipartisan support in both chambers of the Congress, and together they have the potential to make a real difference in the lives of thousands of child soldiers around the world. The Foreign Relations Committee incorporated the bills on child soldiers into the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act, providing an important impetus to efforts to address this ongoing global tragedy.

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

What Rumsfeld Got Right - Robert Kaplan, The Atlantic

Rumsfeld, one former Pentagon official told me, saw Iraq’s degraded military as an easy target for our own; its destruction would provide a quick demonstration of American power, as well as get rid of the regional threat that the Iraqi regime constituted. No firm believer in democratic transformation, he probably assumed, as did many other people at the time, that any new regime in Baghdad, even a military one, would be a dramatic improvement, in strategic terms for the US and in human-rights terms for the Iraqis. Rather than a fear of chaos, what is more apparent at this stage is a certain complacency on Rumsfeld’s part. For example, he evidently did not challenge the personnel system’s choice of ground commander in post-invasion Iraq. The Army’s 5th Corps was slated to rotate out of Germany and into Iraq. Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez, the 5th Corps commander, and his staff, despite their service in Bosnia, had done little thinking about counterinsurgency. From that set of circumstances, a long trail of well-documented mistakes followed. In this and other cases, Rumsfeld, who is often accused of micromanaging, did not micromanage enough.

Air Force Firings Followed Budget Battle - Rowan Scarborough, Washington Times

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates' decapitation of the Air Force leadership came months after a heated debate pitting Mr. Gates and his staff against Air Force generals over spending priorities, knowledgeable sources have revealed. Gen. T. Michael Moseley, whom Mr. Gates fired June 5 over lax nuclear weapons controls, vehemently argued in private for producing more F-22 Raptors, an advanced stealth fighter that represents air power's future. Gen. Moseley, a fighter pilot with extensive combat experience, argued that Mr. Gates and his budget shop were so focused on providing money for the current wars of counterinsurgency, it shortchanged the Air Force's future, according to a source close to the Air Force leadership.

Firing Up the Air Force - Austin Bay, Washington Times opinion

The classic World War II-era poster reminded talkative dock workers that "loose lips sink ships." Well, loose nukes present an even more imposing problem, one with continent-cracking possibilities. Last week, when Defense Secretary Robert Gates requested and received the resignations of Air Force Secretary Michael Wynne and US Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Michael Moseley, Mr. Gates' office cited as a reason a Pentagon investigation of lax standards in Air Force oversight of nuclear weapons. One incident involved a USAF bomber with cruise missiles overflying a wide swath of the United States - and the crew didn't know the weapons had real nuclear warheads. That sounds bad, and bad it is. Resignation at Mr. Wynne's and Gen. Moseley's level of national service, especially under these conditions, is a euphemism for "fired."

Tom Ricks's Inbox - Thomas Ricks, Washington Post

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates recently fired the two top officials in the Air Force over the service's sloppy handling of nuclear weapons. Last week, he visited the Air Force Combat Command to explain his actions. His remarks struck me as a model of the way a civilian chief should speak to service members: respectfully and precisely, but leaving no doubt about who is in charge.

Kaplan on Rumsfeld - Max Boot, Contentions

Robert D. Kaplan, one of our most thoughtful and enterprising foreign correspondents, has an intriguing article in the Atlantic headlined, “What Rumsfeld Got Right.” He admits that the Rumsfeld legacy is not a good one, as seen in the worsening situation in Iraq and Afghanistan on his watch. But he tries to argue that Rumsfeld wasn’t wrong about everything. “Even before 9/11,” he writes, “Rumsfeld saw a new strategic landscape of manifest uncertainty, of fundamental and catastrophic surprise.” In responding to that changed environment, Rumsfeld moved tens of thousands of troops out of established bases in Europe and Asia

Reforming Strategic Defense Planning - Robert Jordan Prescott, House of Marathon

With a pivotal presidential election on the horizon, contesting visions for the future will proliferate. Presidential contenders will outline their agenda for America over the next four years and esteemed observers will elaborate on global trends. Perusing the bookshelves, one can find new titles declaring the “return of history”, a “post-American world,” or journal articles describing an “age of non-polarity,” globalization, violent insurgencies, and the challenges posed by China, Russia, Iran, India, Brazil, and Japan. Similarly, the departing administration will undertake a last round of assessments and identify key trends and challenges in its compendium of strategic plans. Previously, American strategic planning was facilitated by the singularity of the enemy and the indisputable likelihood of its endurance. One would reasonably conclude the successful peaceful end of the Cold War of 1991 would have validated the inherent value of strategic planning and identification of national interests and objectives. However, the near universal conclusion of former policymakers and observers alike has been the paucity of strategic planning capability within the government and insufficiency of existing strategic plans. Rectifying this deficiency will entail substantial presidential leadership as well as a departure from existing approaches.

US DEPARTMENT OF STATE

Suited for the New Diplomacy? - James DeHart, Washington Post opinion

One of my US Foreign Service colleagues has a great photo of himself from his time working with a Provincial Reconstruction Team in one of Afghanistan's livelier provinces. He's dressed in khaki, with an MP5 assault rifle slung over his shoulder. When I first saw it, I thought: There's a lot to say about service like that. It's adventurous. It's courageous. It's patriotic. But is it diplomacy? Maybe, maybe not. But it seems to be the trend. Since 2003, more than 2,000 members of the Foreign Service have volunteered to serve in Iraq or Afghanistan and - last year's flap over forced assignments to Iraq notwithstanding -- continue to do so in droves. Often, they're involved in non-traditional nation-building work - digging wells, building schools and mentoring city councils - in military units far from the US embassy.

US INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

How Cold War Spies Got the Goods - Washington Times book review

At the outset, permit me to whet your appetite. Spycraft (Dutton, $29,95, 533 pages) reveals more concrete information about CIA tradecraft than any book I've encountered in half-century of spook reading. It is the story of CIA's Office of Technical Services, or OTS, and how it worked with the operations arm, the Clandestine Services, to pull off some truly astounding feats. The principal author of "Spycraft" is Robert Wallace, former OTS director, with the assistance of H. Keith Melton, a CIA consultant, who has amassed perhaps the largest collection of spy gear in the world. The attending wordsmith was Henry R. Schlesinger, who writes about intelligence technology for Popular Science Magazine. The story is of how OTS evolved from wartime technicians of OSS who fashioned relatively unsophisticated items such as miniature cameras and microphones. The first generation CIA "technies" produced pretty much what came to mind, with relatively little guidance from the Clandestine Services, which prefers to do its business in private.

A Fix-It List for The Spies - David Ignatius, Washington Post opinion

If the US intelligence community were a business, it would be obvious that there's something wrong: It's in the middle of a misguided reorganization that makes the AOL-Time Warner merger look good; its most famous brand name, "CIA," has been badly tarnished; and it has lost the confidence of its three shareholders -- the executive branch, Congress and the American public. This bear market in intelligence is not helpful for a nation that is fighting two major wars. So what should the next president do to fix the US intelligence community? A group of past and present members of the spy world, joined by some journalists and academics, gathered here last week to discuss this covert conundrum. The conference, sponsored by the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, didn't come up with definitive answers. But it convinced me that this issue should be at the top of the next president's list of national security challenges.

Missing Real Spycraft By That Much - Thomas Boghardt, Washington Post opinion

For me, standing in line to see Steve Carell in the new big-screen version of "Get Smart," which opens Friday, won't be just getting my summer movie fix. It's a professional necessity. I work at the International Spy Museum in Washington, and Maxwell Smart's capers are often the first things visitors want to know about: How real - or how far from the real world - are his shoe phone, the cone of silence and the stereophonic gun, among other gizmos?

US PRESIDENTIAL RACE

In ’74 Thesis, Seeds of McCain’s War Views - David Kirkpatrick, New York Times

About a year after his release from a North Vietnamese prison camp, Cmdr. John S. McCain III sat down to address one of the most vexing questions confronting his fellow prisoners: Why did some choose to collaborate with the North Vietnamese? Mr. McCain blamed American politics. “The biggest factor in a man’s ability to perform credibly as a prisoner of war is a strong belief in the correctness of his nation’s foreign policy,” Mr. McCain wrote in a 1974 essay submitted to the National War College and never released to the public. Prisoners who questioned “the legality of the war” were “extremely easy marks for Communist propaganda,” he wrote. Americans captured after 1968 had proven to be more susceptible to North Vietnamese pressure, he argued, because they “had been exposed to the divisive forces which had come into focus as a result of the antiwar movement in the United States.”

John McCain's National War College Essay From 1974 - New York Times

The Code of Conduct and the Vietnam Prisoners of War, 8 April 1974.

AFRICA

Mugabe Vows to Go to War Before Ceding - Barry Bearak, New York TImes

The Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, sounding ever more pugnacious, said Saturday that he was prepared to go to war if he lost a runoff election to the opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai on June 27. Mr. Mugabe finished second to Mr. Tsvangirai in balloting on March 29, but the margin was not enough to avoid a runoff. Mr. Mugabe portrays his challenger as a bootlicker to the British, Zimbabwe’s colonial masters. And he seems determined to deter Mr. Tsvangirai from publicly responding to his invectives and threats.

Mugabe Pledges to Fight 'Lackeys' - BBC News

President Robert Mugabe has vowed that the main opposition party will never lead Zimbabwe and said he was prepared to "go to war" for his country. He is due to face Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, in a 27 June run-off poll. Mr Tsvangirai was released after being arrested for the fifth time this week. Meanwhile, deputy MDC leader Tendai Biti appeared in court in Harare, where a judge is to rule on the legality of his arrest on treason charges.

A Blind Eye to Mugabe's Reign of Terror - Jeff Jacoby, Boston Globe opinion

The agonies being inflicted on Zimbabwe by its corrupt and brutal president are worsening. Last week, the government of Robert Mugabe ordered international aid agencies to put a halt to the operations that have been keeping hundreds of thousands of Zimbabwe's people alive. With most of the country's population out of work and in dire poverty, the food and other humanitarian assistance provided by groups like CARE and Save the Children are more desperately needed than ever. By shutting them down, Mugabe and his henchmen were knowingly condemning countless vulnerable Zimbabweans to death. Mugabe claimed, preposterously, that the humanitarian agencies were trying "to cripple Zimbabwe's economy" and bring about "illegal regime change." Actually, it his own demented and dictatorial misrule that has destroyed the country, turning what was once a prosperous land into the world's most rapidly collapsing economy. And it is his determination to cling to power by any means - including starving and terrorizing voters who support a change in government - that has filled Zimbabwe not just with hunger and sickness but with savagery and bloodshed as well.

Chadian Rebels Launch Attack - BBC News

Anti-government rebels in Chad have launched an attack on the town of Goz Beida, near the border with Sudan. The United Nations reported fighting in the town, which is home to 15,000 Darfur refugees. Irish EU peacekeepers returned fire after coming under attack in the town, which rebels captured briefly. A rebel leader said they would advance to the capital N'Djamena. A Chadian minister said government forces were preparing to defend the city.

S. Africa Mob Burns Mozambican Man - BBC News

A Mozambican man has been burned alive by a mob during disturbances near the South African capital Pretoria. The 30-year-old was stoned then set alight in Atteridgeville township after being accused of an arson attack on a shack the day before, said police. Three suspects were held for murder and robbery as 2,000 rand ($246 £126) were stolen from the man, police said. Atteridgeville was the scene of a spate of recent attacks on foreigners, in which 62 people died.

AMERICAS

Drugs Cartel Dominates Tijuana - John Harlow, Times of London

It was a quiet Wednesday night in the Tijuana city morgue: only eight murder victims were on ice, including two young Mexican women shot through the back of the head and dumped on waste ground. These are the latest victims of the United States’ seemingly insatiable demand for cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine, which has sparked the bloodiest drugs war in the Americas and cost more than 4,000 lives in the past 18 months. The war has pitted the Mexican government, with American help, against a ruthless drugs cartel led by a Mexican female mastermind who has a degree in business administration. The victims in the mortuary may have been smugglers who ran into a rival faction. Their stories are unknown: undertakers do not have time to find their relatives. “They’ll find us,” said one.

Hugo Chávez, New and Improved - New York Times editorial

It turns out that Hugo Chávez is an adaptable man. The Venezuelan president, who has championed - and almost certainly helped arm - Colombia’s FARC rebels, called last week for the rebels to lay down their weapons and unconditionally surrender their hostages. We suspect this change of heart has been driven more by self-interest than conviction. Mr. Chávez is increasingly unpopular at home and increasingly isolated abroad, especially as evidence has mounted of his meddling in Colombia. The change nevertheless is welcome and well timed.

FARC Loses a Booster? - National Review editorial

When the Colombian government discovered documents on captured computers detailing Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chávez’s ties to the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (known by its Spanish acronym “FARC”), his first reaction was typical Chávez: buffoonish defiance. He called the documents “forgeries” and hinted that U.S. agents had planted the laptops to frame him. Venezuela’s defense minister called it “a big lie, prepared in U.S. laboratories.” (If it was a “big lie,” it was good enough to fool Interpol, whose experts determined that the laptops had not been tampered with.) It therefore came as an enormous surprise this week when Chávez reversed his longstanding policy of recognizing the FARC as a legitimate army and called on the group to lay down its arms and release its hostages “in exchange for nothing.” Chávez called Latin America’s tradition of leftist guerilla warfare “history,” adding, “At this moment in Latin America, an armed guerrilla movement is out of place.” The apparent loss of its biggest state sponsor is just the latest setback to a group that in recent months has seen its top commanders killed and captured in increasingly daring Colombian military raids.

With the OAS in Medellin - John Thomson, Washington Times opinion

An air of nonexpectation permeated the recent 38th Annual General Assembly of the Organization of American States in Medellin, Colombia. A veteran attendee said, "The location changes yearly, the players less frequently. There is a sameness to the proceedingsthe results are always hard to define." Every member of the 34- state OAS holds veto power. Thus, St. Kitts and Nevis, with fewer than 40,000 citizens, has an equal voice with other nations. This assures tepid resolutions, resulting in an essentially passive organization.

ASIA PACIFIC

Old Farming Habits in Uzbekistan - Sabrina Tavernese, New York Times

Uzbekistan, a land-locked country that was once part of the Soviet Union, is home to one of the biggest man-made disasters in history. For decades its rivers were diverted to grow cotton on arid land, causing the Aral Sea, a large saltwater lake, to lose more than half of its surface area in 40 years. But old habits are hard to break, and 17 years after the Soviet Union collapsed, cotton is still king and the environmental destruction continues unabated, cutting into crop yields. Uzbekistan is the world’s second-largest cotton exporter after the United States, drawing a third of its foreign currency earnings from the crop, but that status seems increasingly threatened by corruption, poor planning and the degradation of cropland.

North Korea Conundrum - Richard Halloran, Washington Times opinion

A former senior official in President Bush's White House has dropped a proverbial bombshell by asserting the United States and South Korea have no coordinated plan to cope with a collapse of the North Korean regime of "Dear Leader" Kim Jong-il, a prospect that becomes more possible with each passing day. Victor Cha, who was director for Asian affairs on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007, wrote last week: "In what would be the single most important contingency that could impact the South Korean economy and security for decades, there is no agreed-upon plan for how to deal with a collapsing North Korea."

EUROPE

No 10 Admits EU Treaty is Finished - Oliver and Smith, Times of London

Gordon Brown is privately ready to sacrifice the Lisbon treaty rather than allow the Irish no vote to create a two-tier Europe. Despite the Irish referendum, France, Germany and senior Brussels officials have insisted there should be no delay in implementing the European Union blueprint. But No 10 sources say the prime minister would rather see the entire constitutional treaty collapse than allow individual member states to be left trailing in a two-speed Europe.

France Urges Pursuing EU Treaty - Reuters

French President Nicolas Sarkozy led calls Saturday for the European Union to press on with ratifying its new treaty, but Ireland's "no" vote revived talk of pro-European capitals forming their own club. Sarkozy said the rejection of the pact in a referendum Thursday should not spark a crisis and confirmed that British Prime Minister Gordon Brown had assured him he that would defy Euroskeptics and pursue its endorsement. "Today, 18 European states have ratified. The others must continue to ratify . . . so that this Irish incident does not become a crisis," Sarkozy said at a news conference with President Bush in Paris.

UN Hands Over to Kosovo Albanians - BBC News

A new constitution has come into force in Kosovo, after the territory declared independence from Serbia in February. Majority ethnic Albanian authorities will now run the territory although it remains unclear who will oversee Kosovo's Serb-dominated areas. Under the new constitution, which came into force at midnight on Sunday, Kosovo's government assumes many of the powers held up till now by the UN. The European Union is to deploy several missions to the territory and will take on a supervisory role in a move opposed by Serbia and Russia.

Check of the Irish - Washington Times editorial

The sky over Europe is not falling. That's the bottom line of Ireland's rejection Thursday of the Lisbon Treaty. Of the 27 European Union member states, Ireland, the only to require a popular referendum, has usefully tested an otherwise very insulated, elite-driven expansion of EU power. It has rejected the best-laid plans of Commissioner Jose Manuel Barroso and allies. At this point, the EU should realize that its long-term prospects require it to acknowledge the legitimate objections of real, actual voters. This, of course, was the same lesson that went unheeded in 2005, when France and the Netherlands issued comparable "No" votes to the EU Constitution, killing it.

In Europe, a Slide Toward Irrelevance - Robert Kagan, Washington Post opinion

A mere two years ago, the British author and thinker Mark Leonard published a book titled "Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century." Today, one wonders to what degree Europe will even participate in the 21st century. It's not just the deadly blow struck by Ireland's rejection Thursday of the Lisbon Treaty reorganizing the European Union. I've spent six of the past eight years in the capital of the European Union, and I've noticed over this period a steady loss of self-confidence in Europe, a turning inward and a growing pessimism about the future. For all the focus on the ills of the American economy, few Europeans feel they are about to inherit the world. Germany's economy is riding high these days, but it is exceptional, and even Germans fear it may be temporary. The pleasure Europeans take in the weak dollar and the high euro is a welcome distraction from deeply rooted fears that the Asian giants are overtaking and out-competing Europe in the international economy. Europe's big neighbor also causes angst. Every day some European official pleads for a common energy policy to confront predatory Russian monopolists, but every day the Russians cut a new deal favoring one European interest at the expense of another.

MIDDLE EAST

A Year Reshapes Hamas and Gaza - Ethan Bronner, New York Times

Cursing God in public here - a fairly common event in this benighted and besieged strip of Palestinian land - can now lead to prison. So can kissing in public. A judge ruled last week that a bank could not collect its contracted interest on a 10-year-old loan because Islam forbids charging interest. One year ago, gunmen from Hamas, an Islamist anti-Israel group, took over Gaza, shooting some of their more secular Fatah rivals in the knees and tossing one off a building. Israel and the West imposed a blockade, hoping to squeeze the new rulers from power. Yet today Hamas has spread its authority across all aspects of life, including the judiciary. It is fully in charge. Gazans have not, as Israel and the United States hoped, risen up against it.

SOUTH ASIA

Rival Turns Up the Heat on Musharraf - Jane Perlez, New York Times

The pressure on Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf to resign escalated Saturday after a senior leader in the civilian government suggested to a large outdoor rally here that Mr. Musharraf should be hanged. During a heated speech televised live in the early hours, the former prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted by Mr. Musharraf in a bloodless coup in 1999 and now leads the party that is the junior partner in the governing coalition, said Mr. Musharraf must be held accountable for past misdeeds.

Rally Directs Anger at Musharraf - BBC News

Pakistani ex-PM Nawaz Sharif has denounced President Pervez Musharraf at a rally demanding the restoration of an independent judiciary. Arriving during the night at the protest in Islamabad, he told thousands of lawyers and activists that Mr Musharraf must be held "accountable". President Musharraf sacked the chief justice and about 60 other judges last November under emergency rule. Hundreds of buses brought protesters close to parliament in the capital. They arrived at 0200 on Saturday (2000 GMT Friday) and crowds have been milling close to the floodlit building to hear speeches by Mr Sharif and others.

Indian Troops Killed in Kashmir - BBC News

At least five Indian soldiers have been killed in a militant ambush in Indian-controlled Kashmir, the army says. Two officers were among troops from the Border Roads Organisation killed in the attack in Kishtwar district. No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. Troops have sealed off the area and launched a search operation. Violence in Kashmir has declined since a 2003 truce between India and Pakistan. India says militants still cross over from Pakistan.

WORLD

G-8 Says Oil, Food Prices Pose Threat - Tomoko Hosaka, Associated Press

Finance ministers from the Group of Eight industrialized nations urged oil producers Saturday to boost output to help stabilize record-high oil and food prices, calling the situation a serious threat to global economic growth. The world economy faces "headwinds" because of the recent rise in prices, the G-8 ministers said in a joint statement at the conclusion of two days of talks here.

Letter From Cairo - Thomas Friedman, New York Times opinion

The current global energy-food crisis is, understandably, a pocketbook issue in America. But when you come to Egypt, you see how, in a society where so many more people live close to the edge, food and fuel prices could become enormously destabilizing. If these prices keep soaring, food and fuel could reshape politics around the developing world as much as nationalism or Communism did in their days. A few years ago, Egypt’s president, Hosni Mubarak, belatedly but clearly embarked on an economic reform path that has produced 7 percent annual growth in the last three years - and now all that growth is being devoured by food and fuel price increases, like a plague of locusts eating through the Nile Delta.

RECOMMENDED READING

Recommended Reading for Saturday - Matt Armstrong, MountainRunner

A short list of posts you may not have seen.

KeepNet 15 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

Today’s essential reading.

KeepNet 8 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

More great reading from a SWJ friend.

UK CT & COIN Features - 13 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

UK CT & COIN Features - 14 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.

24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.