IRAQ

US, Iraq Will Come to Terms on Troops - Dan Eggen, Washington Post

President Bush said Wednesday he is confident the United States will reach an agreement on the role of US forces in Iraq, calling opposition to a US proposal part of the "noise" of a freer Iraqi society. Appearing at a news conference here with German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Bush said that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki "appreciates our presence there" and suggested that much of the Iraqi opposition to a status-of-forces agreement is based on inaccurate media reports and misunderstandings. "There's all kinds of noise in their system and our system," Bush said. "... I think we'll get the agreement done." Top Iraqi officials are calling for a dramatic reduction of the US role in Iraq later this year.

US Enlists And Arms Patrols in Sadr City - Amit Paley, Washington Post

Young men armed and paid by the US military took to the streets of the Iraqi capital's Sadr City area for the first time Wednesday to guard their neighborhoods, part of a new strategy designed to recruit former Shiite militiamen to American-created security groups, US officials said. The program is modeled after a more than year-old initiative, now known as the Awakening movement, to pay men formerly aligned with the Sunni insurgency to turn against it. But the new groups, called "Neighborhood Guards" by the Americans and "Sons of Iraq" by Iraqis, are the first to focus solely on a heavily Shiite area and among the few to acknowledge arming civilians.

Parties Do Battle Over US Forces' Future - Jonathan Weisman, Washington Post

Congressional Democrats yesterday opened fire on comments from Republicans -- including presumptive GOP nominee John McCain - that equate the US military's future in Iraq to the presence of US bases in Germany, Japan and South Korea. The issue erupted after Sen. McCain (R-Ariz.) said in an interview with NBC's "Today" show that the timetable for US forces to come home from Iraq is not of great concern as long as US casualties in the Middle East fall to levels comparable to those in allied countries where US forces have been stationed for decades without incident.

Bombings, Mortar Fire Kill 8 - Associated Press

A bomb planted near a bridge in north Baghdad killed five people on passing minibuses during rush hour Wednesday, Iraqi police said. A woman and a 7-year-old boy were among the dead, and at least 10 people were wounded in the mostly Shiite Muslim neighborhood of Hurriya, an officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity because of security concerns. The US military said it captured an Iranian-trained bomb expert southeast of Baghdad during a raid on the man's home.

US Military Blames Shiite Militias - Hamid Ahmed, Washington Times

The US military on Thursday blamed Shiite militia fighters for a bombing the day before that killed six Iraqi civilians and wounded nine other people, including two American soldiers in Baghdad. The blast occurred at about 9:45 a.m. Wednesday when an armor-piercing roadside bomb targeted an American convoy in a northern section of the capital, the military said. The statement, which gave the casualty toll, said the bomb was an explosively formed penetrator, or EFP, a signature weapon of Shiite militias that the US alleges comes from Iran. At least 15 pounds of explosives were used, it said.

CNAS: Conditional Engagement - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

I spent the first half of my day at an intimate gathering of about 900 other members of the broadly-defined foreign policy community at the annual conference of the Center for New American Security. Not bad, since they originally planned on 400 in a room which seated 300. The opening panel offered an overview of American grand strategy options, with Michele Flournoy presenting the conclusions of a CNAS report on that topic and Derek Chollett presenting an overview of his new book (co-authored with my friend and GWU colleague Jim Goldgeier) on US foreign policy in the 1990s. The discussion by Joseph Nye, Mitchell Riess, Bill Kristol, and John Ikenberry was quite lively and interesting, but I won't say much more about it unless anyone really wants me to (go here from a taste, and here and here and here).

General Stone at USIP - Marc Lynch, Abu Aardvark

This afternoon, after the CNAS conference which I'll write about next, I headed over to the US Institute for Peace, where Major General Douglas Stone spoke with an audience of 50-60 people about his experience in reshaping American detainment facilities in Iraq over the last year and a half (background on Stone here). Stone offers a sweeping vision of these detention facilities as sites for education and the promotion of moderation (don't say re-education... he doesn't like it), and as a core part of COIN. He's a genuinely impressive man, who passionately and justifiably believes in what he accomplished during his tenure. But I came away troubled, in part by the questions not asked.

Police Detain 3 Special Groups Operatives - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

Iraqi police have captured three Iranian-backed Special Groups operatives behind the kidnapping and murder of five US soldiers at the Karbala Provincial Joint Coordination Center in January 2007. Meanwhile, US troops captured another Special Groups leader in the Al Kut region. The Iraqi police captured the three "key criminals" behind the 2007 Karbala attack in Musayyib, just south of Baghdad, on June 5. The three Special Groups operatives are "suspected of trafficking and emplacing explosively formed projectiles." Explosively formed projectiles are the signature weapon of Shia terrorists with links to Iran.

AFGHANISTAN / PAKISTAN TRIBAL AREAS

Afghanistan Conference to Raise Cash, Set Strategy - Reuters

Ministers from dozens of countries gather in Paris on Thursday to pledge funds for Afghanistan and review their development strategy for the violence-plagued state. More than six years after US-led forces ousted the Taliban regime that sheltered al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, corruption is rife, the drug trade is thriving and attacks occur daily in Afghanistan, one of the world's poorest nations.

US Pledging $10B for Afghanistan Development - Anne Gearan, Associated Press

The Bush administration wants to spend about $10 billion for development and related aid to Afghanistan over two years, an amount roughly on par with recent US donations and sure to be the single-largest pledge at an international fundraising conference. The money is a mix of what Congress has already approved and what the administration is still seeking. Afghan leaders hope to raise $15 billion to $20 billion in immediate help for their desperately poor, war-scarred nation. However, they face wide skepticism that the Kabul government is up to the task of seeing that the money is not squandered.

Australia to Give $250m to Afghanistan - The Australian

Australia will commit a further $250 million to support Afghanistan's reconstruction and development. Foreign Affairs Minister Stephen Smith said he would make the pledge at a donors' conference in Paris tomorrow. Afghanistan is understood to be asking the international community to commit more than $50 billion in aid during the next few years. The US will pledge about $10 billion over around two years, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said as she flew to the Paris meeting. The World Bank's envoy said it would provide about $US1.1 billion ($A1.16 billion) over five years and a foreign ministry spokesman said Japan would offer an extra $US550 million. The Afghani government will launch a national development strategy, setting out a five-year reconstruction plan.

Pakistan Blames US Coalition for Deaths - Rondeaux and Tyson, Washington Post

At least 11 Pakistani soldiers and 10 other people were killed in northwest Pakistan in a border clash that erupted during a military operation led by US-supported Afghan forces, Pakistani military officials said Wednesday. The Pakistani army blamed the troop deaths on a US airstrike and condemned an attack it said "had hit at the very basis of cooperation" in the countries' joint battle against terrorism.

Pakistan Angry About US Strike - Gall and Schmitt, New York Times

American air and artillery strikes killed 11 Pakistani paramilitary soldiers during a clash with insurgents on the Afghan border on Tuesday night, a development that raised concerns about the already strained American relationship with Pakistan. The strikes underscored the often faulty communications involving American, Pakistani and Afghan forces along the border, and the ability of Taliban fighters and other insurgents to use havens in Pakistan to carry out attacks into neighboring Afghanistan. The attack comes at a time of rising tension between the United States and the new government in Pakistan, which has granted wide latitude to militants in its border areas under a new series of peace deals, drawing criticism from the United States.

Pakistan Says US Airstrike Killed 11 - Los Angeles Times

The Pakistani army Wednesday accused the US military of an "unprovoked and cowardly" airstrike that resulted in the deaths of 11 Pakistani infantrymen, threatening the cooperation between the two countries in combating terrorism. In an unusually strong statement, the Pakistani army added that it reserved the right to protect citizens from unwarranted aggression. As American officials expressed regret for the deaths without acknowledging responsibility, the incident threatened to aggravate already tense relations between the US and Pakistan, whose newly elected government has faced accusations from the U. military that it has failed to crack down on extremists in Pakistan's western tribal areas.

US Airstrike Kills 11 Pakistani Soldiers - Hussain and Evans, Times of London

Pakistan accused US forces yesterday of killing 11 of its soldiers in an “unprovoked and cowardly” attack on a border post, an act that it said threatened to undermine the two countries’ joint effort in the War on Terror. The soldiers were killed late on Tuesday night in what American officials called a “regrettable incident” at Gora Pai in the Mohmand tribal region of Pakistan, bordering the Afghanistan Kunar province, where coalition forces have been fighting Taleban insurgents. A senior Pakistani security official said the fighting erupted after Afghan and NATO forces tried to set up a mountain-top post along a disputed stretch of the frontier and were told by border troops to withdraw.

Pakistan, US Differ Over Border Airstrike - Matthew Pennington, Associated Press

Pakistan's army and the U.S. military gave widely differing accounts Wednesday of a clash on the Afghan border that left 11 Pakistani troops dead. While their forces were just a few hundred yards apart, a huge gulf existed in their views of events - underscoring the mutual suspicion between two uneasy allies in the war against international terrorism. The alliance is unpopular among Pakistanis, whose newly elected civilian government is negotiating with some militants in hopes of curbing a surge in violence. Western officials fear peace deals could give more space for Taliban and al-Qaida militants to operate.

UN Security Council Targets Heroin - John Hielprin, Associated Press

The UN Security Council called Wednesday for better cooperation from nations that aren't complying with an international treaty that seeks to restrict chemicals used in Afghanistan's heroin trade. The council resolution, proposed by France and approved in a 15-0 vote, urges better coordination with the International Narcotics Control Board, which monitors how well UN drug control treaties are implemented.

World's Biggest Drug Seizure - David Blair, Daily Telegraph of London

About 260 tons of narcotics were found in trenches and bunkers in Kandahar province in southern Afghanistan. No previous haul comes close to matching this find, which weighed roughly the same as 30 double-decker buses. The previous record was set by Colombia's security forces when they uncovered 81 tons of coca.

Afghans Uncover 260 Tons of Hashish - Jason Straziuso, Associated Press

Afghan counternarcotics officials said Wednesday that they uncovered 260 tons of hashish hidden in 6-foot-deep trenches in southern Afghanistan in what one DEA official said appears to be the world's biggest drug bust. The hashish, found in the southern province of Kandahar on Monday, was worth more than $400 million and would have netted the Taliban about $14 million in profits, NATO's International Security Assistance Force said.

The Gift of Life - Sara Carter, Washington Times

With Afghanistan among the world's poorest countries, the ability of villagers to reach health care providers is many times impossible. For soldiers on the front lines of the war, the Bagram hospital - which conducts nearly 200 surgeries a month and has about 38 beds - is a "godsend" as well, say medical personnel at the facility. The new facility for US-led International Security Assistance Force was completed in March 2007, and from the inside, it resembles almost any hospital in the United States.

What I Saw in Afghanistan - Laura Bush, Wall Street Journal opinion

When the Taliban were driven from power in 2001, they left Afghans to build a society from nothing. But working in partnership with the United States and other nations, the Afghan people have made amazing progress. Since the fall of the Taliban, Afghanistan's infant-mortality rate has been reduced by almost 25%. Its per capita GDP has increased by 70%. In 2001, only 8% of Afghans had access to basic health care. Today, that number is 85%. In 2001, fewer than a million Afghan children were in school – all of them boys. Today, more than six million Afghan children are in school – about a third of them are girls. On my trip, I saw how these developments are offering Afghans new hope. Yet many hurdles still lie ahead – and my trip was a reminder of those, too. The new schools and roads I visited stood in the shadow of Bamiyan's sandstone cliffs – where two hollow caves are all that remains of Afghanistan's ancient Buddhas, blown up by the Taliban in 2001. Those scars in the cliffsides are a reminder of the danger lurking in the Afghan hills. It's a danger we read about on the front pages, as the Taliban and al Qaeda step up their campaign of suicide bombings and violence. And it is a danger that threatens to erase the progress that Afghans have made.

Emerging Democracy - Rangin Spanta, Washington Times opinion

As a matter of history, destroying something has always been easier than creating it. For Afghanistan, three decades of conflict leveled the country's institutions and tore at its social fabric. And while the last six years of reconstruction have been marked by positive achievements, we still have a long way to go. The Paris Support Conference that takes place today is an important opportunity for Afghanistan and its international partners to review our joint achievements and correct our shortcomings. More importantly, it is a chance to share ideas on tackling the remaining obstacles in our arduous journey toward joining the international community as a progressive, democratic and prosperous nation.

Peril of Negotiating with the Taliban - Herschel Smith, The Captain's Journal

It has been said that the counterinsurgency campaign in Afghanistan now includes a mixture of drug runners, criminals, warlords, and Taliban. True, as we have noted in The Disaggregation of the Taliban. But as we have also noted, wheat is replacing poppy throughout Afghanistan as the money crop, and nothing stops the Taliban from extortion of farmers over the safe transport of wheat. In fact, nothing has stopped the Taliban from extortion of wireless phone companies in Afghanistan. The problem is not wheat, wireless phone companies or poppy. The problem is the Taliban.

Afghan Troops Clash With Taliban - Bill Roggio, The Long War Journal

The Afghan Army clashed with the Taliban in the Pakistani tribal agency of Mohmand on June 10. While initial reports indicated the US conducted a targeted airstrike against a Taliban or al Qaeda leadership target in the tribal agency, the aircraft appear to have been supporting Afghan troops during the clash with the Taliban. Conflicting reports fault the clash for killing Pakistani soldiers at a nearby Army outpost. The fighting started after Afghan forces attacked a Taliban force as it attempted to cross the border. Between 10 and 13 Pakistani soldiers were killed after Afghan and US forces pursued Taliban forces fleeing into Pakistan.

Al Qaeda’s Excellent Sanctuary - Westhawk, Westhawk

Al Qaeda’s senior leaders have arranged for themselves an excellent sanctuary. Even they must be surprised at how good their security is after nearly seven years of war. As I discussed in a post from May 30th, Pakistan is simultaneously an ally and opponent of the US military campaign in the region. Indeed, just yesterday, a border clash between Afghan soldiers on one side and Taliban insurgents and Pakistani soldiers on the other escalated until the US military ended the engagement by shelling and bombing the Taliban-Pakistani positions. Yet at the same time, the large and growing NATO-US force inside Afghanistan could not continue without sustainment over the main supply routes that run through Pakistani territory.

IRAN

'All Options' Open to Check Tehran - Matt Spetalnick, Reuters

President Bush threatened Iran Wednesday with more sanctions if it failed to stop enriching uranium and said all options were on the table to thwart Tehran's nuclear ambitions. Mr. Bush, who met German Chancellor Angela Merkel as part of his weeklong tour of Europe before flying to Rome, is pressing allies to agree to new punitive measures against Iran. While Europeans have voiced support for new sanctions, they are also looking past Mr. Bush, whose presidency ends in January.

Iran Unmoved by Threats on Atomic Program - Meyers and Kulish, New York Times

Increasingly tough warnings from President Bush and his European allies have done nothing to temper Iran’s stance on its nuclear program, worsening the confrontation over what American officials and others suspect is a covert Iranian plan to build an atomic bomb. In Germany for meetings with Chancellor Angela Merkel, President Bush emphasized again on Wednesday that “all options are on the table” in any response to what is suspected of being Iranian research into developing nuclear weapons. Those options would include the possibility of military force, he said. Even as Mr. Bush won new support from the Europeans, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad of Iran responded by mocking attempts to rein in his country’s nuclear program, which Iran maintains is for peaceful development of nuclear energy.

Iran Official Arrested For Criticizing Clerics - Thomas Erdbrink, Washington Post

A mid-level government official supportive of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's political faction was arrested Wednesday for making public accusations of corruption against several top clerics, the Iranian Fars News Agency reported. Iranian media accounts said Abbas Palizdar gave two speeches at universities in the Iranian cities of Hamadan and Shiraz in May in which he denounced several clerics, some of whom hold important political positions. Public attacks by officials against high-ranking clerics are extremely rare in Iran, and Palizdar's speeches have been covered prominently by opposition media abroad. One of his speeches was videotaped and has been posted on the Internet.

US Warns Defiant Iran Ahead of Solana Trip - Fredrik Dahl, Reuters

The United States warned a defiant Iran on Wednesday that "all options are on the table" to thwart its nuclear ambitions and the EU's top diplomat prepared to travel to Tehran in the latest bid to resolve the dispute. As part of carrot-and-stick diplomacy, European Union foreign policy chief Javier Solana said he would be in Iran on June 14-15 to discuss an offer by major powers of trade and other benefits if it halts uranium enrichment. But the Islamic Republic made clear it had no intention of bowing to international demands and halting a nuclear program which it says is aimed at generating electricity but which the West fears is a covert drive to build bombs.

THE LONG WAR

Brown Buys Time on Terror Vote - Webster and Elliott, Times of London

Gordon Brown bought himself time after scraping a Commons majority over 42 days’ detention by just nine votes last night - thanks to the support of nine Northern Ireland MPs. Having put his authority on the line to extend the period in which police can hold terrorist suspects without charge, his win sparked astonishing scenes of recrimination against the Democratic Unionist MPs.

Terror Bill Passes Narrowly in Britain - John Burns, New York Times

Prime Minister Gordon Brown faced down a revolt within his governing Labor Party on Wednesday, winning a precariously narrow victory in the House of Commons for a measure that among other things would allow the authorities to hold terrorism suspects for up to 42 days without charges. Whether the measure becomes law, and when, now depends on the government’s success in navigating the new counterterrorism bill past the House of Lords, where it may not be introduced until the fall and where it is expected to meet stronger opposition.

British PM Wins Vote for Tougher Terror Laws - David Stringer, Associated Press

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown narrowly won a key vote Wednesday on plans for tougher terrorism laws, surviving a rebellion in his own ranks after a fierce political battle that pitted national security against civil liberties. Brown had staked his political credibility on giving police more time to hold terrorism suspects in custody - and investigate alleged plots - before they are charged or released. Following months of testy debate, lawmakers voted 315 to 306 to approve plans to increase the time from 28 days to six weeks.

Secret Terror Files Left on Train - BBC News

Police are investigating a "serious" security breach after a civil servant lost top-secret documents containing the latest intelligence on al-Qaeda. The unnamed Cabinet Office employee apparently breached strict security rules when he left the papers on the seat of a train. A fellow passenger spotted the envelope containing the files and gave it to the BBC, who handed them to the police.

UK Spy Leaves al Qaeda File on Train - Holden and Graff, Reuters

One of Britain's top intelligence officials left a file with secret documents about Iraq and al Qaeda on a train, in an embarrassing government security breach that was exposed on Wednesday. A passenger found the orange folder on a train and handed it in to the BBC, which said it contained top secret documents on Iraq and al Qaeda. The Cabinet Office, the central government department that supports the work of Prime Minister Gordon Brown, acknowledged the incident and said it had called in a police investigation.

Interrogation for Profit - New York Times editorial

Congress is finally moving to ban one of the Bush administration’s most blatant evasions of accountability in Iraq - the outsourcing of war detainees’ interrogation to mercenary private contractors. Operating free of the restraints of military rule and ethics, some of these corporate thugs turned up in the torture scandal at the Abu Ghraib prison and walked away with impunity. Others are now believed to be in the employ of the Central Intelligence Agency at secret prisons that remain outside the rule of law, exempted even from the weak 2006 rules on interrogating prisoners.

National Security = Border Security - Duncan Hunter, Washington Times opinion

The open borders of the United States amount to a national security exposure. This is a fact that cannot be debated. One has only to look at the number of foreign nationals attempting to illegally enter the U.S. through Mexico over the last several years. Since 2005, the Department of Homeland Security reports that more than 331,000 people from countries other than Mexico have been apprehended trying to cross the Southern land border. These individuals came from virtually every country in the world, including some with whom we have an adversarial relationship, such as Communist China, Iran and North Korea.

The End of Intervention? - Phillip Carter, Intel Dump

I liked former Secretary of State Madeline Albright's essay on today's New York Times op-ed page, because it captures the dilemma at the heart of American foreign policy today. On the one hand, both our interests and our ideals compel us towards action. But on the other, we stagger forward with the hangover of our wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, conflicts that have justifiably left us gun-shy about future interventions, no matter how well justified. Albright -- a liberal hawk who championed the successful interventions in Bosnia and Kosovo -- lays out this debate in a very thoughtful way.

Where from now? Return of the Jihadi - Londonstani, Abu Muqawama

For those of you who haven't already spotted it, our own Andrew Exum (Abu Muqawama in disguise) has a piece in Democracy on jihadis returning from the battlefields of Iraq. Now, Londonstani knows full well that there are a couple of subjects on which Ex should be listened to with full attention. In order of importance, these are; 1. Where to get good coffee in East London. 2. Where to get good curries in East London and 3. Military matters in Iraq and Afghanistan. Ex talks about how the return of Iraq's foreign jihadis will affect their countries of origin. He looks at weak states such as Lebanon, strong states, such as Morocco, and what he calls "the cyber return", where returning jihadis can impart their accumulated knowledge online.

International Strike Group To Fight Piracy - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Piracy represents a peacetime system disruption to sea lines of communication, instances of "uncommand of the sea" through violence or threat of violence, but as a peacetime system disruption this contested state at sea requires a peacetime strategic approach to eliminate. As we have stated before, successful maritime strategy during peacetime leverages military power to establish "command of the sea" when system disruptions create conditions of "contested uncommand of the sea."

US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE

Cocky Ignorance - Thomas Sowell, Washington Times opinion

What has been widely publicized in the media is that suicides among American troops have gone up. What has not been widely publicized is that this higher suicide rate is still not as high as the suicide rate among demographically comparable civilians. No one needs to be reminded that suicide is a serious matter, whether among soldiers or civilians. But the media have managed to create the impression that it is military service overseas which is the cause of suicides among American troops, when civilians of the same ages and other demographic characteristics commit suicide at an even higher rate at home. Moreover, this is not the first time military service overseas has been portrayed in the media as the cause of problems that are worse in the civilian population at home.

UK MINISTRY OF DEFENCE

"Next-War-itis" Gets Political - Galrahn, Information Dissemination

Imagine politicians having a debate on purchasing military equipment with the goal of looking for balance, with some members making the argument the defense procurement strategy sounds more like "Next-War-itis" rather than supporting the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. No, of coarse this debate isn't happening in the United States, but it did happen on Tuesday in the House of Commons.

AUSTRALIA DEPARTMENT OF DEFENCE

Defence in Need of Urgent Reform - Patrick Walters, The Australian

The Defence Department's business "backbone" is broken and it must undergo fundamental reform if the defence force is to continue to operate effectively, departmental head Nick Warner has warned. Mr Warner said in a speech to the Lowy Institute yesterday that, although Defence performed well in key areas including operations and intelligence gathering, important parts of the complex $22billion-a-year enterprise were "broken" and "ailing". There were serious problems with overall financial and inventory management, explosive ordnance management and departmental information technology systems.

AFRICA

Mugabe's Militia Burn Opponent’s Wife Alive - Jan Raath, Times of London

The men who pulled up in three white pickup trucks were looking for Patson Chipiro, head of the Zimbabwean opposition party in Mhondoro district. His wife, Dadirai, told them he was in Harare but would be back later in the day, and the men departed. An hour later they were back. They grabbed Mrs Chipiro and chopped off one of her hands and both her feet. Then they threw her into her hut, locked the door and threw a petrol bomb through the window. The killing last Friday - one of the most grotesque atrocities committed by Robert Mugabe’s regime since independence in 1980 - was carried out on a wave of worsening brutality before the run-off presidential elections in just over two weeks. It echoed the activities of Foday Sankoh, the rebel leader in the Sierra Leone civil war that ended in 2002, whose trade-mark was to chop off hands and feet.

American Aid Is Seized in Zimbabwe - Celia Dugger, New York Times

Zimbabwean authorities confiscated a truck loaded with 20 tons of American food aid for poor schoolchildren and ordered that the wheat and pinto beans aboard be handed out to supporters of President Robert Mugabe at a political rally instead, the American ambassador said Wednesday. “This government will stop at nothing, even starving the most defenseless people in the country - young children - to realize their political ambitions,” said the ambassador, James D. McGee, in an interview. The government ordered all humanitarian aid groups to suspend their operations last week, charging that some of them were giving out food as bribes to win votes for the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, in a June 27 presidential runoff against Mr. Mugabe.

Mugabe Deploys Veterans to Boost Campaign - Cris Chinaka, Reuters

Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's party said on Wednesday it would deploy more war veterans to campaign in opposition areas ahead of a presidential election run-off marred by violence. Opposition Movement for Democratic Change leader (MDC) Morgan Tsvangirai accuses the ruling ZANU-PF of widespread attacks on his supporters but says he is confident of victory in the June 27 poll after beating Mugabe in the first round. A senior UN official will visit Zimbabwe next week to discuss the political situation and forthcoming presidential elections, a UN spokeswoman said on Wednesday.

Disown this Dictator - Washington Times editorial

Where are the election observers as Zimbabwe's June 27 presidential election approaches? They are barred, at least the major Western observers, by Robert Mugabe's regime. Mr. Mugabe has promised to invite several regional bodies, including the African Union and the South African Development Community, but he has not yet done so. This means that just two weeks before the election, there are no observers in place. Little wonder. They would find a climate of voter intimidation, no meaningful campaign activity and the arrest - in some cases the murder - of opposition figures on the pretext of "security."

Escalating Djibouti-Eritrea Clash - Reuters

Border clashes between Eritrea and Djibouti have killed 9 Djiboutian soldiers and wounded 60 others in three days of fighting between the Horn of Africa nations, a defense official said on Thursday. In the first fighting since the mid-1990s between two of Africa's smallest states, Eritrean and Djiboutian troops have exchanged fire along a part of their shared border overlooking strategic shipping lanes in the Red Sea.

Moroccan Court Convicts 29 of Plotting Terrorism - Associated Press

A Moroccan court convicted 29 people of planning terrorism attacks and supporting combatants in Iraq, the official MAP news agency said Wednesday. The criminal court in Sale, near Rabat, convicted 27 members of an alleged Islamic extremist group late Tuesday and sentenced them to prison terms ranging from two to eight years, MAP said. Two suspects were convicted in absentia and sentenced to a year in prison, it said. The group, known as the Tetouan cell after the northern Moroccan town where most of the defendants came from, was accused of having ideological, financial and logistical ties to several terrorist organizations, including al-Qaida.

Pirates Terrorize Nigeria’s Fishing Fleet - Will Connors, New York Times

Early this year, the crew members of the Mareena 1 fishing trawler had just finished hauling in their catch 15 miles off the coast and were settling into their bunks for a few hours of sleep when they were awakened by machine-gun fire. Nine heavily armed men in a speedboat attacked the trawler, and the boat’s cook was shot in the stomach. He bled to death while the pirates, who had boarded the boat, ate, took naps and stole everything that was not welded down. “There were attacks before, but it’s the worst now,” said Geoffrey, the captain of the Mareena 1, who gave only his first name out of fear of reprisals. “Formerly, we had hijackings and they would steal everything, but now they attack and they are shooting and taking lives.” The waters off the 530-mile Nigerian coastline have been called the most dangerous in the world by a maritime watchdog group after a precipitous rise in the number of attacks over the past year. And while kidnappings of foreigners and attacks on oil installations in Nigeria have gained international attention, it is often those with a far lower profile who bear the greatest burden of the lawlessness at sea.

AMERICAS

Cuba Oil Plans Could Put Hole in US Embargo - Jeff Franks, Reuters

Sometime next year, Cuba plans to begin drilling a major oil field off its northern coast that might do what little else has done -- bring change to US-Cuba relations. In a rare confluence of circumstances, oil could grease the wheels for the two bitter enemies to come together in the middle of the Florida Straits out of mutual need, experts say. Getting there would require a sea change in US policy - namely putting a major hole in the US trade embargo imposed against Cuba in 1962 to topple Fidel Castro's communist government.

Ex-chief of Colombia Secret Police Freed - Associated Press

Colombia's Supreme Court has ruled that a former head of the secret police facing charges of working with far-right death squads should be set free. The court is calling for Jorge Noguera's immediate release because prosecutors failed to properly file charges against him. Noguera was arrested in February 2007 and was the highest-ranking government official to be tried on links to the far-right paramilitaries. He was Colombia's intelligence director for 2002 to 2005.

Chavez Sings a Different Tune - Washington Times editorial

Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez stated on his weekly radio program that the Marxist guerrilla organization, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), should release its hostages and abandon its quest to overthrow Colombia's democratic government. "Guerrilla wars have become history in Latin America," Mr. Chavez said. This is a dramatic reversal of policy for the Venezuelan strongman who has been insisting that FARC is a legitimate insurgency rather than a terrorist organization. Mr. Chavez is at last taking a more sensible position - but it remains to be seen whether he will follow his words with deeds. Mr. Chavez has long been suspected of providing financial and military assistance to the rebels. Recently, the Colombian army killed a prominent rebel leader, Raul Reyes, and seized his laptop. Interpol is examining 37,000 files in the computer and has confirmed that there are close ties between FARC and the Chavez government. The computer files indicate that Mr. Chavez promised to give FARC $300 million, a portion of Venezuela's oil earnings and access to ports for arms shipments from Russia.

ASIA PACIFIC

China's Secret Pacific Aid Hike - Sian Powell, The Australian

Ground-breaking Australian research has uncovered the extent of China's secretive aid program in the Pacific - estimated to have grown almost nine-fold since 2005, to $US293million ($309 million) last year. Lowy Institute research associate Fergus Hanson, who has spent months delving into China's aid program, said yesterday that although China received $US1.76 billion in assistance in 2005, the nation had been busily pledging and disbursing aid around the world, particularly in the Pacific. "The main driver of Chinese aid to the region remains halting and reversing diplomatic recognition of Taiwan," Mr Hanson told a Lowy Institute audience in Sydney yesterday. "China regards Taiwan as a renegade province, and has for several decades waged a largely successful battle to wrest diplomatic recognition from 'the other China'. This battle remains particularly intense in the Pacific." China aids eight developing Pacific Island Forum nations that recognise its sovereignty - the Cook Islands, Fiji, Micronesia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu.

Chinese Suspected in Hacking Cases - Richard Schmitt, Los Angeles Times

Hackers believed to be operating from China have broken into computers in Congress, apparently in search of information on Chinese dissidents, two GOP lawmakers said Wednesday. The hackers were not identified, but one of the lawmakers, Rep. Christopher H. Smith of New Jersey, a senior Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said he thought all signs pointed to the Chinese government. Federal authorities have been increasingly concerned in recent years about the Chinese government's aggressive deployment of scientists, engineers, foreign businessmen, students and others to sweep up U.S. technology and information. Protecting the United States against cyber attacks and high-tech crimes is the FBI's third priority, behind combating terrorism and public corruption.

Taiwan Team Arrives in Beijing for Talks - Edward Cody, Washington Post

Seeking to foster a new era of cooperation, Taiwanese and Chinese negotiators opened talks Thursday to put the finishing touches on an accord for regular charter flights to Taiwan and sharply expanded Chinese tourism on the self-ruled island. The talks, expected to conclude Friday, were described as the first step in what officials on both sides hope will grow into broad economic, political and security negotiations aimed at an agreement to set aside 59 years of hostility, lower military tensions and do more business in one of Asia's most volatile flash points.

Top US Officials Stalling Taiwan Arms Package - Glenn Kessler, Washington Post

Top Bush administration officials are delaying a long-promised $11 billion arms package for Taiwan, raising the possibility that the issue will be left for the next president, according to sources inside and outside the administration. The package was originally proposed by the Bush administration in April 2001, shortly after Bush took office, but it faced repeated delays in approval by Taiwan's legislature. Now that funding for the package has been approved - and Taiwan's new government has indicated that it wants the arms as well as a separate package of F-16 aircraft - both Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and national security adviser Stephen J. Hadley have put the brakes on the deal, sources said.

S. Korea's Leader Vows to Make New Start - Kim and Harden, Washington Post

South Korean president Lee Myung-bak on Wednesday pledged to "restart" his fledgling administration following protests that began over a decision to allow the importation of US beef but broadened into a backlash against the president himself. In his first comments on demonstrations that drew tens of thousands of people into the streets of central Seoul and other South Korean cities on Tuesday, Lee told a group of business leaders that he would "restart the government with renewed resolve" in an effort to regain public support.

EUROPE

Russia Rebuilding Superpower Military - Martin Sieff, United Press International

Gen. Nikolai Makarov has replaced tough, old Gen. Yury Baluyevsky as the chief of staff of Russia's armed forces and has been tasked with rapidly modernizing them. Despite all the stories of a run-down and demoralized military that regularly appear in the Western media, Russia's armed forces remain the most powerful and effective land force across all of Eurasia. They don't have enough modern equipment. But what they do have is state-of-the-art, especially in main battle tanks, heavy artillery and close ground tactical air support. Their multiple-launch rocket mortar forces are without parallel in any other armed force in the world. However, modernization has not been going remotely as fast as former Russian president and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin would like.

Medvedev Qualifies Optimism Over US Relations - Peter Finn, Washington Post

In some of his first comments on future U.S.-Russia relations, President Dmitry Medvedev struck an optimistic note Wednesday but reiterated Russia's objections to further eastward expansion by the NATO alliance and to the deployment of a U.S. missile defense system in Eastern Europe. "Russia is ready for constructive, comradely dialogue with the new U.S. administration," Medvedev told delegates at an international congress of the Russian-language press in Moscow. "Russia and the United States have an enormous responsibility to uphold international stability and security... On the whole, I'm reasonably optimistic about our relations."

EU, UN Roles Hazy in Kosovo's New Era - Nicholas Kralev, Washington Times

Days before the West begins one of the most ambitious nation-building experiments in modern history, profound questions remain about how the day-to-day governance of Kosovo will be handled. Kosovo now has its own government. But the UN mission that effectively ruled the former province of Serbia since 1999 is still here. The country's new constitution, which takes effect Sunday, envisions no role for the United Nations, because that would imply lack of sovereignty, but it authorizes the European Union to help run Kosovo.

Police Arrest Serb War Crimes Fugitive - Slobodan Lekic, Associated Press

Serbian police on Wednesday arrested one of the four remaining war crimes fugitives wanted by the UN tribunal in the Netherlands. Suspect Stojan Zupljanin was arrested in the vicinity of Belgrade, Serbia's war crimes prosecution spokesman Bruno Vekaric told The Associated Press. Serbian television said the arrest was made in an apartment in Pancevo, a town 12 miles (20 kilometers) from the capital. Zupljanin, 57, was a Bosnian Serb police commander during the 1992-95 civil war. The UN tribunal wants him on charges of crimes against humanity for overseeing Serb-run prison camps.

MIDDLE EAST

Syrians Demand Golan Peace Offering - Martin Chulov, The Australian

Syria claims it will not move to hold direct talks with Israel unless the Jewish state publicly puts the Golan Heights on the table as a peace offer. Ahead of the resumption next week of indirect talks in Turkey between the two long-term enemies, Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister has added new uncertainty to hopes of a detente by insisting that the Golan area should be handed back before any face-to-face meetings. The statement was interpreted in Jerusalem as posturing ahead of the latest round of exchanges between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's senior staff and key officials from Damascus. Israel captured the Golan Heights from Syria during the Six Day War in 1967, and has since annexed the militarily strategic plateau, which it uses as a holiday destination for Israelis, and a prime cattle-breeding and farming zone.

Israel Rules Out Gaza Invasion - Mark Lavie, Associated Press

Israeli leaders decided Wednesday against mounting a major attack on militants in the Gaza Strip, saying they would give Egypt more time to broker a truce with the territory's Hamas rulers. But with bloodshed on both sides, including the death of a 6-year-old Gaza girl, the government said it would push ahead with preparations for a possible invasion and keep attacking Palestinian militants to try to stop daily rocket and mortar barrages on southern Israel.

SOUTH ASIA

Deposed King Quits Palace - Denyer and Sharma, Reuters

Resigned to his fate, Nepal's deposed King Gyanendra left his pink pagoda-roofed palace for the last time on Wednesday, but vowed to stay in the country and work for its people. He swept out of the sprawling Narayanhiti complex in the heart of the capital in a black limousine, driving behind an armed police pick-up, past thousands of onlookers and hundreds of riot police.

UNITED NATIONS

Report: UN Official Diverted Funds - Betsy Pisik, Washington Times

An internal UN investigation has sharply criticized the head of the organization's "good governance" division, finding he has diverted funds donated by the Greek government to improperly pay contractors and mismanaged a $2.8 million trust fund meant to foster transparency and accountability. The report by the Procurement Task Force of the UN Office of Internal Oversight Services (OIOS) suggests that Guido Bertucci, director of the UN Division for Public Administration and Development Management (DPADM), personally reimburse the trust fund for misused funds and be reprimanded for favoritism and other violations in hiring consultants.

The UN's North Korea Chutzpah - Melanie Kirkpatrick, Wall Street Journal opinion

Cindy Adams, the New York Post's doyenne of dish, ends her gossip column with a signature sign-off: "Only in New York, kids, only in New York." I thought of this tag line recently in an unlikely context – a report issued last week by the latest group of investigators charged with reviewing the United Nations Development Program's operations in North Korea. The program was so rife with scandal that the UN agency last year took the unprecedented step of withdrawing from the country. Listen to the UNDP and the report is an exoneration of its work in North Korea and an indictment of the US, which first went public with charges of gross mismanagement a year and a half ago. Read the report, however, and a different picture emerges. The findings are consistent with the US allegations: large sums of money that vanished after being transferred to Pyongyang; dual-use technology shipped off to the North without the requisite US export licenses; a whistleblower without whose input the abuses would not have been uncovered. It also contradicts much of what UNDP officials said in sworn testimony last year to the US Senate Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations.

RECOMMENDED READING

KeepNet 12 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

Looks like Will Hartley is back in the saddle at the Insurgency Research Group, with a new edition of UK CT & COIN Features...

KeepNet 8 June 2008 - Tim Stevens, Ubiwar

More great reading from a SWJ friend.

UK CT & COIN Features - 11 June 2008 - Insurgency Research Group

A round-up of today’s newspaper articles covering the UK’s involvement in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency operations at home and abroad.

EVENTS OF INTEREST

17-19 June 208 - 3rd Annual North American Security Colloquium: Wars Without Borders (Public Event). Kingston, Ontario. Sponsored by the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College, Queen's Centre for International Relations, and Defence Management Studies at Queen's University, and the Canadian 'Forces' Land Doctrine and Training System. The conflicts today in Iraq and in Afghanistan are examples of what some leading scholars and many commanders have termed “continuous wars among the people.” This type of conflict is developing or occurring in other regions of the world, in Africa and in Latin America for example. In many of these situations traditional and legal borders no longer define or contain the conflict, nor do obvious sovereign entities control belligerents. International commitments to control these conflicts necessarily demand complex, multi-dimensional diplomatic, military, police, and humanitarian responses. What has been learned about such conflicts from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan may to some degree be transferable to conflicts in other regions. Assuming that the international community may well face future operations characterized by regional, borderless “wars among the people”, the centres at Queen’s University and their partners propose convening a distinguished group of approximately 200 experts from academic, military, governmental, and international institutions to examine how best to prepare commanders, military units and governments to plan for and conduct complex, multi-dimensional stability campaigns in this new environment.

24-25 June - 16th Annual Expeditionary Warfare Wargame (Public Event - Wargame). Quantico, Virginia. Sponsored by the Marine Corps Combat Development Command (MCCDC) and National Defense Industrial Association (NDIA). The purpose of the war game series is to provide education and familiarization to members of the Association concerning current issues, capabilities, and expeditionary force trends in the United States Marine Corpsand to identify areas where NDIA can provide assistance. The Purpose of the 2008 NDIA Expeditionary Warfare Division/USMC War Game is to examine C2 Integration issues concerning Sensor Fusion, Information Management, and Fusion and the Commander's Visualization Requirements and Realities using seabased Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster Relief operations at the MEB level for a background.

11-15 August - Counterinsurgency Leaders Workshop (Official Event - Workshop). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The US Army/Marine Corps Counterinsurgency (COIN) Center is hosting a five-day program for prospective counterinsurgency leaders, 11-15 August 2008, at the Combined Arms Center, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. The program is focused on equipping leaders with an understanding of the insurgency and counterinsurgency environments, as well as close consideration of the kinds of persons and organizations that usually emerge from insurgencies in contrast to those of conventional conflicts. This event will be held at the Battle Command Training Center (BCTC) Training Facility on Fort Leavenworth. Seating is limited. However, registration is open to any person who serves in any official capacity with regard to dealing with insurgencies, with priority is given to those applying from invited organizations. Other applicants will be reviewed for eligibility on a space-available, case-by-case basis. The duty is uniform/business casual. There will be a $30 conference fee. Application must completed on-line at the link above. The deadline for application is 1 August 2008. For more information, contact the COIN Center at 913-684-5196.

16-18 September 2008 - The U.S. Army and the Interagency Process: A Historical Perspective (Public Event - Conference / Call for Papers). Fort Leavenworth, Kansas. Sponsored by the U.S. Army Combat Studies Institute. The symposium will include a variety of guest speakers, panel sessions, and general discussions. This symposium will explore the partnership between the U.S. Army and government agencies in attaining national goals and objectives in peace and war within a historical context. Separate international topics may be presented. The symposium will also examine current issues, dilemmas, problems, trends, and practices associated with U.S. Army operations requiring close interagency cooperation.