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Promising Iraq Developments – Washington Times editorial
With evidence mounting that the troop "surge" in Iraq is achieving results, even diehard opponents of the war like Sens. Carl Levin and Dick Durbin have been forced to concede that the change in strategy ordered by President Bush is working militarily. The American public seems to believe that victory can be achieved in Iraq. According to a UPI/Zogby Poll released on Wednesday, 54 percent of Americans said the war is not lost. So, in recent weeks, these politicians have turned their attention to the lack of political progress in Iraq. But on Sunday, five Iraqi political leaders (Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shi'ite; President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd; Vice President Tariq Hashemi, a Sunni; Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, a Shi'ite; and Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government) announced they had reached agreement on "de-Ba'athification" — the policy that barred many members of Saddam Hussein's overwhelmingly Sunni Ba'ath Party from holding positions in the post-Saddam government. They also agreed on provincial elections; a law to distribute oil revenue; and a law providing for the release of prisoners held without charge. All of these changes were demanded by the Iraqi Accordance Front, the major Sunni bloc in parliament, which created a political firestorm when it withdrew its six ministers from from the government Aug. 1.
More Realism, Less Spin – New York Times editorial
A new report from Congress’s investigative arm provides a powerful fresh dose of nonpartisan realism about Iraq as President Bush tries to spin people into thinking that significant — or at least sufficient — progress is being made. With a crucial debate on Iraq set for next month, the report should be read by members of Congress who may be wavering in the fight with the White House over withdrawing American troops. The Government Accountability Office, in a draft assessment reported yesterday, determined that Iraq has failed to meet 15 out of 18 benchmarks for political and military progress mandated by Congress. Laws on constitutional reform, oil and permitting former Baathists back into the government have not been enacted. Among other failings, there has been unsatisfactory progress toward deploying three Iraqi brigades in Baghdad and reducing the level of sectarian violence. These conclusions are in line with a recent National Intelligence Estimate that found that violence in Iraq remained high, terrorists could still mount formidable attacks and the country’s leaders “remain unable to govern effectively.”
A Season of Hope in Iraq – Michael Gerson, Washington Post
The season now ending with school bells and the return of Congress was supposed to be the "Iraq Summer." A coalition of antiwar groups promised 10 weeks of phone banks, billboards, petitions and protests targeted at 40 Republican members of Congress who support the war. "It's going to be like laying asphalt in August -- hot," boasted one organizer. During their summer vacation, Americans discovered that Gen. David Petraeus doesn't take one. And his energy and urgency have shifted the Iraq debate in some fundamental ways. A few months ago, it was the received wisdom that Iraq was in the midst of a rapidly escalating civil war. That claim is no longer plausible. While the level of violence is still unacceptably high, the surge has disrupted the cycle of escalation and proved that progress is possible. Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno's briefing this month was an antidote to pessimism. "Total attacks," he said, "are at their lowest levels since August of 2006." Some of the most violent and lawless regions of Iraq, such as Anbar and Diyala, have been stabilized with the cooperation of local Sunni leaders who have turned against al-Qaeda thuggery. Insurgents are being pushed out of population centers and then targeted in further operations. Sectarian murders in Baghdad have gone down by more than 50 percent in a few months, reaching their lowest levels since the Samarra mosque bombing. And new sectarian provocations -- such as the al-Qaeda bombings in Nineveh -- have not resulted in the usual spiral of revenge murders.
Sunnis Turn on al Qaeda Over Marriages – David Sands, Washington Times
Iraq's Sunni tribes began turning against al Qaeda when the largely foreign-run terrorist organization tried to arrange forced marriages with local women to secure their foothold in the country, according to a top counterterrorism adviser to the U.S. coalition in Iraq. Australian Col. David Kilcullen, who just completed a tour as senior counterinsurgency aide to U.S. commander Gen. David H. Petraeus in Baghdad, said in an extensive analysis that the decision by the Sunni tribes to break with al Qaeda could prove a major — if unanticipated — boost to President Bush's surge strategy in the country. "The uprising represents very significant political progress toward reconciliation at the grass-roots level, and major security progress in marginalizing extremists and reducing civilian deaths," Col. Kilcullen wrote Wednesday in the military blog Small Wars Journal (http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog).
Succeeding by Withdrawing – Rosa Brooks, Los Angeles Times
What? You want us pundits to stop complaining about what a mess the Bush administration has made in Iraq, and say something constructive for a change? But sniping is so easy! Did you know that a leaked draft report by the Government Accountability Office concludes that the Iraqi government has met only three of the 18 political and military benchmarks mandated by Congress? OK, what exactly should we do in Iraq? Option One: We keep doing what we're already doing -- the White House approach. Theme song: "Give War a Chance." This is not a viable option. Albert Einstein defined insanity as "doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results." But you don't have to be an Einstein to see that the White House approach hasn't worked, isn't working and won't work. Even if we wanted to maintain our current troop levels and strategy, we can't. Troops don't grow on trees, and neither do "up-armored" Humvees or Bradley fighting vehicles. As Marine Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reportedly plans to warn Bush, we risk degrading U.S. military readiness and jeopardizing our own national security interests if we don't substantially decrease troop levels in Iraq.
A Time for Grace – Peggy Noonan, Wall Street Journal
What will be needed this autumn is a new bipartisan forbearance, a kind of patriotic grace. This is a great deal to hope for. The president should ask for it, and show it. Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, will report to Congress on Sept. 11. From the latest metrics, it's clear the surge has gained some ground. It is generally supposed that Gen. Petraeus will paint a picture of recent decreases in violent incidents and increases in safety. In another world, that might be decisive: It's working, hang on. At the same time, it's clear that what we call Iraq does not wholly share U.S. objectives. We speak of it as a unitary country, but the Kurds are understandably thinking about Kurdistan, the Sunnis see an Iraq they once controlled but that no longer exists, and the Shia--who knows? An Iraq they theocratically and governmentally control, an Iraq given over to Iran? This division is reflected in what we call Iraq's government in Baghdad. Seen in this way, the non-latest-metrics way, the situation is bleak. Capitol Hill doesn't want to talk about it, let alone vote on it. Lawmakers not only can't figure a good way out, they can't figure a good way through. But we're going to have to achieve some rough consensus, because we're a great nation in an urgent endeavor. The process will begin with Gen. Petraeus's statement.
Thinking Beyond Maliki – Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post
The government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has had more than 15 months to try to pacify the Sunni insurgency by offering national accords on oil-sharing, provincial elections and de-Baathification. It has done none of these. Instead, Gen. David Petraeus has pacified a considerable number of Sunni tribes with grants of local autonomy, guns and U.S. support in jointly fighting al-Qaeda. Petraeus's strategy is not very pretty. It carries risk. But it has been effective. The Shiite-dominated government in Baghdad, however, is not happy with Petraeus's actions. One top Maliki aide complained that they will leave Iraq " an armed society and militias." What does he think Iraq is now? Except that many Sunni militias that were once shooting at Americans are now shooting at al-Qaeda.
Still on Track in Basra - Des Browne and David Miliband, Washington Post
Recent weeks have brought a lot of misplaced criticism of the United Kingdom's role in southern Iraq. It is time to set the record straight. The question some people have asked is: Have British forces failed in Basra? The answer is no. Following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein's regime, the international community recognized, through a series of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the need to help the Iraqi people forge a better future for themselves. The people of all coalition countries know the sacrifices involved on the part of our brave armed forces. The United States, Britain and other countries that made up the U.N.-mandated multinational force in Iraq undertook to help provide security while a representative national government was elected, under a new, democratic constitution. We pledged to help Iraqis develop a functioning state, with armed forces, police and other institutions capable of delivering security for the people. We also promised that, when we had done that, we would promptly hand over full responsibility for security to the legitimate, elected Iraqi authorities. Much has been written in recent weeks about conditions in the south, and in particular the significant challenges Basra still faces. These challenges are real, wide-ranging and deep-seated.
Bush’s War Support Rising? – Jon Ward, Washington Times
The White House believes it has made significant progress over the past month in swaying public and political opinion toward supporting a continued U.S. military effort in Iraq, one of President Bush's closest advisers said in an interview. "The end of the August feels a lot better than the beginning of August when it comes to where we are relative to perceptions of our Iraq policy and what is working," said Ed Gillespie, counselor to the president. Congress returns Tuesday from a monthlong recess that did not go according to plan for Democratic leaders and the antiwar movement, who were looking to September as a time to force Mr. Bush into changing course in Iraq. That moment may still come. But August brought numerous reports from regional specialists and even Democratic members of Congress that the president's surge of 30,000 troops is producing positive results.
Changing Role in Iraq – Denis Shanahan, The Australian
While governments in Iraq, the US, Australia, Britain, Iran, Afghanistan, Syria, Turkey and Europe have been holding their collective breath for the US congressional report by General David Petraeus to provide a guide to the future of Iraq, the military and political dynamic has already shifted. The uncompromising, frank, slightly academic and entirely energetic US commander of the multinational force in Iraq has made a positive assessment of the effects of the 20,000-strong surge in Iraq and is already looking at the new battlefield geometry that flows from that conclusion. That geometry is based on the evidence of military progress in Iraq during the surge as a result of a more aggressive attitude in hunting al-Qa'ida and militia extremists, placing increasing political pressure on the Iraqi Government to include dispossessed and disaffected Sunnis, and an increasingly bellicose attitude towards Iran. The military objective is to hold the gains achieved under the two-month push to deny sanctuary to extremists and insurgents in Baghdad and other Iraqi cities while reducing the number of troops in gradual phases. Petraeus's conclusions and strategies have a direct bearing on the 3000 Australian defence personnel operating in the theatre of terror and war stretching from Afghanistan to Iraq. Australia's contribution on the ground in Iraq is certain to change in terms of its style and role without necessarily affecting the number of troops involved. In Afghanistan, Australian troops operating near Tarin Kowt in the south are facing the prospect of a change in the extent of the partnership with Dutch troops as political pressure in The Netherlands grows to reduce its commitment to the fight against the Taliban. Both these military developments have the potential to drastically alter the political debate in Australia, especially any change of role in Iraq that could mean Australians would no longer be neatly packaged in a single battle group in the south.
Young Man’s Work – W. Thomas Smith Jr., National Review
Tired, dirty, footsore, slightly dehydrated, hungry, and with an aching back and shoulders, I limped toward the battalion headquarters building from where a clean, fit, and slightly younger Lt. Col. Jason Bohm — task force commander of 1st Battalion, 4th Marines — emerged. I had just returned to Forward Operating Base Al Qaim after several days operating out of one of Bohm’s battle positions up on Iraq’s Syrian border. Bohm was getting ready to head back out to be with his men. “Colonel, this is young man’s work,” I said. He smiled and responded, “That it is.” Notice, I did not say young person’s work. Nor did I say simply, man’s work. Though I’ve unconsciously understood infantry work to be “young man’s work” ever since I participated in my first, fast, route-stepping distance-march with heavy equipment under a searing Camp Pendleton, California sun some 25 years ago, the conscious reality of it surfaced for the first time during my recent, second trip to Iraq. Granted, “once a Marine, always a Marine.” But at 48-years-old, and a civilian for most of my adult life, I won’t pretend that I am as capable today of fighting, surviving, and contributing to an infantry unit in action, as I was when I was in my early 20’s. By most standards for my age, I’m still strong and quick and I certainly know how to fight. But I also know my limitations, and in spite of my willingness, my body simply cannot endure the extreme heat and cold as easily as it once did. It cannot bear the same loads that it once did, nor can it run the necessary distances at the necessary speeds, negotiate the physical obstacles, or function, as it once managed to, when deprived of food and sleep. Neither can it perform the myriad other tasks required of young infantrymen in modern war.
Sarkozy Warms to U.S., Except on Iraq - Andrew Borowiec, Washington Times
In his short time in office, President Nicolas Sarkozy has brought French foreign policy closer to that of the United States than his two predecessors did in a quarter century. In a series of major addresses to the French diplomatic corps this week, the man called "Sarko the American" by some promised in no uncertain terms to reinforce the friendship with the United States "without indulgence or taboos" and pursue wide-ranging objectives across the globe. Since taking office in May, Mr. Sarkozy has promised to help Washington to stabilize Iraq and issued a stern warning to Iran about a possible conflict over its nuclear buildup. He has also promised closer cooperation with the United States after years of trans-Atlantic sniping and French criticism of American policy. Recent polls confirm Mr. Sarkozy's popularity, even among left-wing sympathizers, half of whom rated his performance as "positive" thus far, according to a poll published Monday by the newspaper Le Figaro. But with much of France on the country's traditional August break, soundings are premature on whether the nation itself has warmed to United States or is simply enamored of the energetic new leader.
Dutch Decision on Afghanistan Affects Canada - Chantal Hebert, Toronto Star
Any day now, the government of the Netherlands is expected to chart the future of its deployment in the southern Afghan province of Uruzgan. One way or another, the decision will add fuel to the raging fire of the debate on Canada's own role in the region. If the Dutch pull out of the province at the end of their tour, they stand to trigger a domino effect that would almost certainly see Canada follow suit in early 2009. In the absence of volunteer countries to step into the breach, the mission as it is currently configured by NATO would have to be put back on the drawing board. But if the Dutch opt to extend their stay, the burden of rocking the NATO boat by bailing out stands to fall squarely on Canadian shoulders. The Netherlands' rotation in southern Afghanistan is slated to end in 12 months, but the country is under intense NATO pressure to sign up for another tour. There, as in Canada, the external pressures to extend the mission are on a collision course with public opinion. A majority in the Netherlands is dubious as to the merit of the deployment and hostile to its extension. The advent this week of a 10th Dutch casualty in Afghanistan prompted headlines that have become familiar in Canada. One newspaper wondered how many deaths the Netherlands public would tolerate before it lost all faith in the deployment. Government officials scrambled to state that there would be no premature end to the mission.
Pervez Musharraf 's Battle for Survival – Con Coughlin, London Daily Telegraph
Pervez Musharraf has arguably the most dangerous job in the world. He lives under the permanent threat of assassination, whether from Islamic extremists or political fanatics. To protect him from the deadly attentions of suicide bombers his daily official routine is secret, and hardly a day passes when his security staff does not uncover some new plot to murder the Pakistani dictator. Having survived numerous attempts on his life since seizing control of the country in 1999, General Musharraf still manages to take a relaxed attitude to living under the constant threat of death. He has the unnerving habit of saying to visitors: "You're taking your life in your hands just sitting next to me", which is meant as a light-hearted remark but often persuades his guests to vacate the premises at the earliest opportunity. Now the 64-year-old Gen Musharraf faces an altogether different threat to his political, rather than his physical, mortality; his long-standing political opponents are ending lengthy spells in exile to mount a serious challenge to the Pakistani President's hopes of remaining in power following the forthcoming elections.
The Future of Pakistan Starts to Take Shape - Bronwen Maddox, London Times
It’s hard to think of Pakistan as a big country of warring factions when its entire leadership rotates through London, with the Dorchester Hotel the stage of choice. Nawaz Sharif, the former prime minister, yesterday chose the Crystal Hall of the Dorchester to announce that he would make his “return to Pakistan, ending my exile” on Monday, September 10. “It is to respond to the call of destiny, for the restoration of undiluted democracy in Pakistan,” he said, to a packed room of 200 journalists shouting questions in Urdu and English, the tops of the television tripods brushing the crystal fringes dangling from the perilously low ceilings. He would land in Islamabad, the capital, he said, because that was where he was forced to leave almost eight years ago, when he was deposed by General Pervez Musharraf in a military coup. Then he would go by road to Lahore, the capital of the Punjab and the heart of his political base – that is, if he is not arrested on landing.
We are Pushing and Pushing to Save the Darfuris - Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy, London Times
There has been important progress on Darfur in the past two months. In July we agreed on the deployment of a robust UN/African Union (AU) force and the start of peace talks. But the situation remains completely unacceptable. In the coming weeks and months, we commit as leaders to redouble our efforts to make further progress. At the end of July the UN agreed to our plan. UN Resolution 1769, passed –– for the first time –– unanimously, was the culmination of intense diplomatic activity over the crisis in Darfur. In the next few weeks, one of the largest UN troop deployments –– this time in partnership with the African Union –– will begin arriving in Darfur. Twenty thousand peacekeepers and nearly 4,000 police will contribute to ensuring the security of Darfur’s people –– as well enabling safe delivery of essential supplies of food. Moreover, on the political front, most of the Darfuri rebel groups met in Tanzania early this month under UN and AU auspices to prepare for political negotiations. They reached agreement on their common demands and said that they would commit to a ceasefire if the Sudanese Government also made the same commitment. But there is still a gap between the efforts pursued by the international community and the dramatic situation that remains on the ground.
Why China is Trying to Colonise Africa – David Blair, London Daily Telegraph
No one alive at the close of the 19th century could have missed the "scramble for Africa". A motley collection of robber barons, imperialist ideologues, explorers, rogues and adventurers - the likes of Cecil Rhodes and the appalling Leopold II, King of the Belgians - carved up the continent in the name of five European powers. Today, few appear to have noticed that a second "scramble for Africa" is under way. This time, only one giant country is involved, but its ambitions are every bit as momentous as those of Rhodes and company. With every day that passes, China's economic tentacles extend deeper into Africa. While Europe sought direct political control, China is acquiring a vast and informal economic empire. Reliable information on Beijing's African adventure is hard to come by. But we do know that trade between China and the world's poorest continent totalled about £30 billion last year - a sixfold increase since 2000. China now buys about one third of its oil from Africa, mainly from Angola, where an £800 million deal to develop a new field was signed last May, and from Sudan, where Beijing built a 900-mile pipeline and invested at least £8 billion. China is spending another £1.2 billion on a new offshore oilfield in Nigeria. Meanwhile, Beijing has acquired mines in Zambia, textile factories in Lesotho, railways in Uganda, timber in the Central African Republic and retail developments in almost every capital. The reasoning behind China's new focus on Africa is simple. If its economic boom is to be sustained, Beijing must find more raw materials and new markets for manufactured goods. Chinese oil consumption is forecast to grow by at least 10 per cent every year for the foreseeable future. At this level of demand, its domestic reserves will vanish within 20 years.
Pyongyang’s Upper Hand – John Bolton – Wall Street Journal
The Six-Party talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program have now descended into a miasma of "working groups," one of which, on U.S.-North Korea bilateral issues, will meet this weekend in Geneva. It is worth paying attention to the outcome of this gathering. North Korea wants to be taken off the U.S. list of state sponsors of terrorism and, as soon as possible, to enjoy full diplomatic relations with Washington. Pyongyang may well succeed, as many in the U.S. State Department seem more eager to grant full recognition to the Pyongyang dictatorship in North Korea than to the democracy in Taiwan. This would be a profound mistake on our part. Nearly 200 days have passed since Feb. 13, when the Six-Party Talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program produced an "agreement" to eliminate that program. Despite encomiums about the virtues of diplomacy, little real progress has been made in eliminating Pyongyang's program. Negotiations in July ended without agreement on a timetable, despite repeated State Department assurances since February that the North would be held to strict deadlines. The Yongbyon reactor is shuttered, but that reactor was not frequently operational in the recent past, and may well be at the end of, or even beyond, its useful life. The return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Yongbyon provides North Korea with a new patina of respectability, despite the near certainty that significant nuclear activity is happening anywhere but Yongbyon.
The UN's Silence on Burma - Boston Globe editorial
Pro-Democracy activists, students, Buddhist monks, and citizens who are simply fed up with the ruling military junta in Burma have been staging impromptu protests since Aug. 19, when the cancellation of fuel subsidies sent prices soaring. The burden is unbearable for many of the 90 percent of Burma’s population living at or below the poverty line. The regime has responded to the demonstrations with violent repression. Plainclothes security agents and gangs of young thugs working for the junta beat up the protesters and throw them into flatbed trucks. Among those arrested are members of the 1988 democracy movement who have already survived long prison sentences and torture. These followers of Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi are expressing resistance to the dictatorship even at the risk of losing their freedom once again. Their resoluteness should not be surprising. And there is nothing novel about the regime’s response. But the resounding silence of the United Nations is hard to fathom.
Who Freed Asia? - Ian Buruma, Los Angeles Times
President Bush is not generally known for his firm grasp of history. But this has not stopped him from using history to justify his policies -- most recently in a speech to U.S. veterans in which he defended his aim to "stay the course" in Iraq by pointing out the consequences of the American withdrawal from the war in Vietnam. But lost in the criticism of that analogy was Bush's mention of the Korean War and the occupation of Japan after World War II as success stories in America's efforts to bring freedom to Asia and, by extension, the world. Was Bush right to boast of the United States' role in giving Japan, Korea and other places in Asia under American protection their freedom? As he put it to the veterans: "Will today's generation of Americans resist the allure of retreat, and will we do in the Middle East what the veterans in this room did in Asia?" What exactly did the U.S. do in Asia? The first few years of the occupation of Japan were indeed a remarkable success for democracy. Instead of helping Japanese of the old school restore an authoritarian system, Gen. Douglas MacArthur's administration helped Japanese liberals restore and improve their prewar democratic institutions. Trade unions were given more clout. Women got the vote. Civil liberties were boosted. And the semi-divine Japanese emperor was brought down to earth. Much of the credit for this goes to the Japanese themselves and the idealistic, left-leaning New Dealers in MacArthur's government who supported them.
Something’s Fishy in Peru - Alonso Alegría, Los Angeles Times
Are food and drink -- their need, their taste, their origin -- hot political matters? Yes they are, at least here in Peru, where the politics of catastrophe have collided with South American squabbles twice recently. The first fracas was the canned tuna affair. Tins of not-too-tasty-looking tuna were briefly but freely distributed to victims of the Aug. 15 earthquake along Peru's southern coast. The labels featured side-by-side photos of two macho politicians (plus a few rather silly anti-government slogans). One was Hugo Chavez, the president of Venezuela, a coarse military man whose tantrums and loquacity throw us back to the times when Latin American military dictators were as preposterous as they were populist (and, indeed, dangerously popular). The other was Ollanta Humala, the leftist former army colonel who, by a nose, lost Peru's presidential race a year ago to Alan Garcia. Now then, why share billing on a tuna can? Chavez is pushing a nasty strain of trade-pact politics by way of an outfit called ALBA (which means "dawn" but is an acronym for Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas). ALBA offices are sprouting like mushrooms in deprived areas across South America, giving away money and making impossible promises. But Chavez needs friends to expand his Bolivarian fantasy, and in Peru, his pal is Humala.
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